The market has already begun rewarding companies that investors consider future beneficiaries of artificial intelligence — even if the firms themselves have not yet implemented these technologies. According to a new large-scale analysis, the stocks of such "potential leaders" grow on average 0.64% faster per week than the shares of other market participants. Economists have dubbed this persistent yield gap the "AI premium."
This conclusion was reached by a group of researchers who analyzed one of the largest datasets on real-world artificial intelligence consumption — 380 trillion tokens collected by the OpenRouter platform from January 2024 to April 2026. The dataset covers more than 400 models, including GPT, Claude, and DeepSeek, and represents approximately 2% of global monthly AI consumption.
How the "AI premium" was calculated
For a precise analysis of technology's impact on the stock market, scientists developed a special indicator — the so-called "AI factor." This tool weekly records changes in global neural network consumption. Companies were then divided into two groups: those whose stocks are sensitive to the rise in AI popularity, and those whose shares barely react to such changes.
Comparing the yields of these groups revealed a significant gap. The stocks of potential beneficiaries brought investors approximately 0.64% more profit per week. This difference was defined as the "AI premium."
At first glance, 0.64% per week may seem insignificant. However, the cumulative effect over a year creates a colossal gap in the long term. The stock market constantly revalues assets based on future expectations, not current indicators.
The key point: the status of "beneficiary" is determined solely by investor expectations, not by current financial results. The additional income is received not by firms that have already implemented AI tools, but by those in whose growth potential the market believes. A company may not use the technology at all today, but if investors see prospects in it, its capitalization grows.
Who benefits
The first important finding: the premium has extended far beyond the technology sector. Retailers, consumer goods manufacturers, and even heavy industry receive increased returns. Investors expect a massive increase in labor productivity across all areas of business. As one of the study's co-authors, Aleh Tsyvinski, noted, the AI story is not just a technological narrative, but a much broader story affecting companies and workers in all parts of the economy.
The second unexpected factor is the geographic distribution of profits. The bulk of the premium is concentrated in the USA and European countries, which are closely tied to infrastructure creation and the construction of modern data centers. In China and emerging markets, this effect is significantly weaker.
The third finding is the role of the user structure itself. It is logical to assume that the market is driven by millions of ordinary users. However, a detailed analysis revealed a different picture: the financial premium is formed exclusively by the professional segment — complex long queries and paid subscriptions.
As study co-author Nicola Borri emphasized, the premium is set precisely by professionals working with advanced AI, not by those who occasionally try free or open models. Investors value the depth of technology integration, not mass adoption.
Expert opinion. This analysis confirms that the market is moving from a hype cycle to a rational assessment of real AI implementation. Investors should focus not on loud statements about "AI adoption," but on the depth of technology use in companies' business processes. Professional AI consumption is the true driver of capitalization growth.