Who actually buys and sells bitcoin is a question that can only be answered by looking under the hood of the network. My analysis of four critical on-chain indicators confirms: there are no panic sell-offs in the market. The data points to a stable structure, not a chaotic dumping of assets.
This is the second part of my breakdown of market participant behavior. While the first part analyzed the market cycle and sentiment, the focus here shifts to the real actions of buyers and sellers.
The first indicator is SOPR, which shows whether holders are selling bitcoin at a profit or a loss. A value above one indicates profit-taking, while below one suggests capitulation. Currently, according to my calculations, SOPR remains near one. This points to a balanced market with no signs of panic selling.
The second indicator is Exchange Netflow, measuring the inflow and outflow of bitcoin to and from exchanges. Large inflows can signal readiness to sell, while outflows indicate long-term holding. The data shows: no extreme inflows to exchanges are currently recorded. Participants are not rushing to offload their coins.
The third is Exchange Reserve, the total volume of bitcoin on exchanges. These reserves continue to decline, reflecting long-term accumulation by ETFs, institutions, and self-custody advocates. From a supply perspective, this is a positive signal.
The fourth is Exchange Whale Ratio, assessing the share of large holders in exchange inflows. The ratio remains relatively high, meaning whales are still actively moving funds. However, high whale activity does not necessarily imply immediate sales — I recommend monitoring this factor especially closely.
The main takeaway: these four indicators need to be analyzed together, not in isolation. Combined with ETF flows, macroeconomic conditions, and derivatives data, they provide a clearer picture than price alone. Current on-chain data indicates an absence of global panic sell-offs.
This review is a continuation of the first part of my analysis, where I examined indicators that help determine the bitcoin market cycle. That covered four metrics: the MVRV ratio, the NUPL indicator, realized price, and the Puell Multiple. According to my findings, the extreme overheating of the past bull market has subsided, and bitcoin is in a phase of consolidation and accumulation.
My professional opinion: the bitcoin market demonstrates maturity. The absence of panic amid sideways movement is a strong bullish signal. However, whale activity requires constant monitoring: if they start moving coins to exchanges en masse, it could be a precursor to a correction. For now, the market structure remains healthy.