The market is already rewarding companies that investors believe will benefit from the adoption of artificial intelligence in the future. This even applies to firms that do not directly use AI technologies today. A new large-scale study, based on an analysis of 380 trillion tokens of AI queries, has identified a persistent return gap — a so-called "AI premium."
A team of economists from leading universities conducted a unique analysis by examining one of the largest datasets on real-world artificial intelligence consumption. They had access to data from the OpenRouter platform covering the period from January 2024 to April 2026, encompassing over 400 models, including GPT, Claude, and DeepSeek. This dataset represents approximately 2% of global monthly AI consumption.
How the premium was calculated
To accurately assess the impact of technology on the stock market, the researchers developed a special indicator — the "AI factor." This tool records changes in global neural network consumption on a weekly basis. Companies were then divided into two groups: those whose stocks are sensitive to the rise in AI popularity, and those whose value barely reacts to such fluctuations.
The result was impressive. Stocks of companies in the first group yielded investors an average of 0.64% more per week than stocks of "insensitive" issuers. The economists defined this difference as the "AI premium." At first glance, 0.64% seems insignificant, but in the long term, this figure creates a massive gap in market capitalization due to the compound interest effect. The market constantly revalues assets based on future expectations rather than current financial performance.
Key takeaway: Beneficiary status is determined solely by investor expectations, not by actual AI adoption. A company may not use these technologies at all today, but if the market believes in its prospects, its capitalization will grow. Trust forms first, then growth follows. As one of the co-authors rightly noted, markets are now rewarding the very proximity of companies to the most advanced models in the US and Europe.
Who benefits and why it matters
The first important finding: the premium has extended far beyond the technology sector. Not only IT giants but also retailers, consumer goods manufacturers, and even heavy industry enterprises receive higher returns. Investors are betting on a broad increase in labor productivity across all areas of business. This is not just a tech narrative but a much broader story affecting companies and workers in all parts of the economy.
The second unexpected factor is geography. The bulk of the premium is concentrated in the US and Europe. These regions are closely tied to building AI infrastructure and constructing modern data centers. In China and emerging markets, the effect is significantly weaker. Market mechanisms reward proximity to cutting-edge developments, which are currently available to only a few.
The third finding concerns the user structure. It would be logical to assume that millions of ordinary users drive the market. However, a detailed analysis revealed a different picture: the financial premium is formed exclusively by the professional segment. Complex, lengthy queries and paid subscriptions are what truly impact stock prices. Investors value the depth of technology integration, not mass reach.
Cryptalist Expert Opinion: This study is a powerful signal for the market. It confirms that we are at the beginning of a long-term structural trend. Investors should pay attention not to companies that are already "hype" about AI, but to those whose business models could be radically transformed by technology over the next 3-5 years. The premium will grow as professional AI usage deepens.