Investors are already rewarding companies they believe will become the main beneficiaries of artificial intelligence, even if those companies have not yet implemented the technology. A large-scale analysis of real-world AI consumption data has revealed a persistent gap in returns: stocks of such "candidates" generate an average of 0.64% more profit per week compared to the rest of the market. This phenomenon has been dubbed the "AI premium."
How the "AI Premium" Was Calculated
The research is based on a unique dataset covering 380 trillion tokens collected by the OpenRouter platform from January 2024 to April 2026. This data array includes over 400 models, including GPT, Claude, and DeepSeek, and reflects approximately 2% of global monthly AI consumption.
To analyze the impact of the technology on the stock market, economists developed a special indicator — the "AI factor." This tool records changes in global neural network consumption on a weekly basis. Companies were then divided into two groups: those whose stocks show high sensitivity to the growth in AI popularity, and those whose securities barely react to such fluctuations.
The result was telling: the first group consistently outperformed the second by an average of 0.64% per week. This difference was precisely what was defined as the "AI premium."
At first glance, 0.64% per week may seem insignificant. However, over the long term, this effect accumulates, creating a colossal gap in returns. The stock market constantly revalues assets based on future expectations, not current performance.
Key Findings: Who Benefits
The first and perhaps most important discovery: the "AI premium" has extended far beyond the technology sector. Not only IT giants but also retailers, consumer goods manufacturers, and even heavy industry enterprises receive higher returns. Investors are betting on a broad increase in labor productivity across all areas of business. As one of the study's co-authors, Aleh Tsyvinski, noted, the AI story is not just a technological narrative but a much broader one, affecting companies and workers in all parts of the economy.
The second unexpected factor is geography. The bulk of the "premium" is concentrated in the USA and Europe. These regions are closely tied to the creation of infrastructure and the construction of modern data centers. In China and emerging markets, this effect is significantly weaker. Market mechanisms reward proximity to cutting-edge developments, which are currently available to only a few.
The third discovery concerns the structure of the users themselves. It would be logical to assume that the market is driven by millions of ordinary users. However, a detailed analysis revealed a completely different picture. The financial premium is formed exclusively by the professional segment — complex, lengthy queries and paid subscriptions. As co-author Nicola Borri emphasized, the premium is set precisely by professionals working with advanced AI, not by those who occasionally try free or open models. Thus, investors value the depth of technology integration, not mass adoption.
Expert opinion: This analysis is a powerful signal for the market. The "AI premium" is not a speculative bubble but a rational assessment of future cash flows. Investors should pay closer attention to companies that are actively integrating AI into their business processes, even if they are not technology giants. The key factor is the depth and professionalism of technology use, not merely the fact of its mention.