One of the most impressive turnarounds in recent times has occurred on the Polymarket platform. A user under the nickname DEEDDIT managed to fully recover a multi-million dollar loss within a week and achieve a net profit exceeding $10.7 million. Notably, all successful trades were placed exclusively on football matches.
Analyzing the trader's profile, I discovered that their largest single win was $6.1 million. A total of 17 predictions were recorded, but the key factor in their success was a massive bet on the outcome of the match between the national teams of France and Spain. With a total trading volume on this market of about $4.9 million, the player collected a payout of nearly $11 million. The net income from this trade reached $6.1 million, equivalent to a return of 124.83%.
How the turnaround looked
The overall chart for the entire account history shows that the user was down by approximately $10.8 million. However, a narrow weekly view allows for a detailed tracking of how the account balance dropped on the night of July 12, 2026. Immediately after this difficult period, the chart line shoots vertically upward. This rapid recovery was driven by a series of accurate sports bets.
In addition to the profitable position on France or Spain advancing, the list of completed contracts includes other extremely successful predictions. For example, the No option on France winning on July 14, 2026, brought the wallet owner about $10.2 million on a turnover of $6.4 million. The net profit here was $3.8 million, or 59.45%.
The Yes option on a draw in regular time for the Switzerland vs. Colombia match yielded a payout of $5.7 million on investments of $1.9 million. Net income reached $3.8 million with a record return of 196.02%. Predictions on the USA vs. Belgium and Switzerland vs. Colombia pairs advancing to the next round, as well as the Asian handicap Spread: Spain (-1.5), also performed excellently.
Expert comment: Such cases clearly demonstrate that abnormal returns are possible in prediction markets, especially in the sports vertical, provided there is deep analysis and a willingness to take high risks. However, it is worth remembering that behind each such success lie dozens of failed attempts, and this case is more of an exception than the rule. For retail investors, such stories should serve as an example of capital management, not a call to reckless betting.