The market has begun to reward in advance companies that investors believe will become the main beneficiaries of artificial intelligence. This is not just about tech giants, but a wide range of industries, from retail to heavy industry. According to a new large-scale analysis, the stocks of such "potential leaders" grow on average 0.64% per week faster than the shares of other market participants. Economists call this persistent difference in returns the "AI premium."
The research is based on an unprecedented dataset — 380 trillion tokens collected by the OpenRouter platform from January 2024 to April 2026. This dataset covers over 400 models, including GPT, Claude, and DeepSeek, and represents about 2% of global monthly AI consumption. To analyze the impact of technology on asset values, a special metric was developed — the "AI factor," which weekly records changes in global demand for neural networks.
How the premium was calculated and who is in the lead
Economists divided companies into two groups: those whose stocks are sensitive to the growth in AI popularity, and those that practically do not react to such changes. Comparing the returns of these groups revealed a significant gap of 0.64% per week. At first glance, this seems like a small amount, but in the long term, the compounding effect creates a colossal advantage for the "chosen ones."
Key takeaway: beneficiary status is determined solely by investor expectations, not by current financial performance. The market advances companies with high potential, even if they are not actively using AI today. As one of the co-authors, Yukun Liu, aptly noted, markets now reward the very proximity of companies to the most advanced models in the US and Europe.
Geography and depth: who shapes the premium
The analysis revealed three key aspects. First, the premium has extended far beyond the technology sector. Retailers, consumer goods manufacturers, and industrial enterprises receive higher returns. Investors are betting on a large-scale increase in labor productivity across all areas of business.
Second, the geography of profit distribution is uneven. The bulk of the premium is concentrated in the US and Europe — regions where infrastructure is being created and modern data centers are being built. In China and emerging markets, this effect is significantly weaker. Market mechanisms reward proximity to advanced developments, which are currently available to few.
Third, the user structure plays a decisive role. Contrary to expectations, the premium is not driven by the mass consumer, but by the professional segment that uses paid subscriptions and works with complex, lengthy queries. As co-author Nicola Borri notes, investors value the depth of technology integration, not mass reach.
My expert opinion: This trend is a clear signal for long-term investors. The "AI premium" is not a speculative bubble, but a fundamental revaluation of assets. Companies that can demonstrate deep integration of AI into their business processes will gain a sustainable advantage. However, the key risk is geopolitical fragmentation: if access to advanced models remains the prerogative of the US and Europe, other markets risk being left without this premium.