Who actually buys and sells Bitcoin can be understood through on-chain data. An analysis of four key indicators conducted by specialists at XWIN Research Japan shows that there are no panic sell-offs in the market. This is the second part of the review, focusing on the real actions of buyers and sellers, as opposed to the previous analysis of market cycles and sentiment.
SOPR Indicator: Balance Without Fear
The first indicator is SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), which reflects whether Bitcoin is being sold at a profit or a loss. A value above one indicates profit-taking, while below one suggests capitulation. Currently, SOPR remains near one, indicating a balanced market without panic selling. This is a key signal: participants are not rushing to offload the asset, even with minor price fluctuations.
Exchange Netflow and Exchange Reserve: Outflows and Accumulation
The second indicator is Exchange Netflow, which measures the inflow and outflow of Bitcoin to exchanges. Large inflows can signal readiness to sell, while outflows indicate long-term storage. Currently, no extreme inflows have been recorded, ruling out mass profit-taking or panic. The third indicator is Exchange Reserve, the total volume of Bitcoin on exchanges. It continues to decline, reflecting long-term accumulation by ETFs, institutions, and self-custody advocates. From a supply perspective, this is a positive factor: the fewer coins on exchanges, the lower the selling pressure.
Exchange Whale Ratio: Whale Activity
The fourth indicator is Exchange Whale Ratio, which assesses the share of large holders in exchange inflows. The ratio remains relatively high, indicating that whales are still actively moving funds. However, as experts emphasize, high whale activity does not necessarily mean immediate selling. This factor should be monitored particularly closely, as whales can both accumulate and distribute positions.
Comprehensive Analysis: Structure Over Price
The main conclusion from XWIN is that these four indicators should be analyzed together, not separately. Combined with ETF flows, macroeconomic conditions, and derivatives data, they provide a clearer picture than price alone. Current on-chain data indicates an absence of global panic sell-offs. Nevertheless, whale activity remains an important factor to watch in the coming weeks. The overall takeaway is that market structure matters more than momentary price fluctuations—it is the combination of multiple indicators that reveals the true balance of power.
As an analyst, I believe the current situation resembles an accumulation phase typical of the mid-bull cycle. The absence of panic and declining exchange reserves are bullish signals, but whale activity warrants caution. The market is consolidating, and the next significant impulse could be triggered by macroeconomic events or a sharp change in ETF flows.