There are no clear signs of panic selling in the Bitcoin market — this is the conclusion reached by analysts at XWIN Research Japan after analyzing four key on-chain indicators. While the price fluctuates, the behavior of market participants demonstrates surprising calm and composure.
This is the second part of my analysis of the current market state. If in the first part we examined the overall market cycle and sentiment, now I have focused on the specific actions of buyers and sellers, using objective network data.
Four indicators that explain everything
1. SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio). This indicator reflects whether Bitcoin holders are selling at a profit or a loss. A value above 1 indicates profit-taking, while below 1 suggests capitulation. Currently, SOPR is near 1, pointing to a balanced market without mass panic selling. Participants are not rushing to offload coins at a loss, nor are they aggressively taking profits.
2. Exchange Netflow. This indicator measures the inflow and outflow of Bitcoin to trading platforms. Large inflows often signal readiness to sell, while outflows indicate long-term storage. Currently, I do not see extreme spikes in inflows. The market is not being flooded with coins, which removes the threat of a sharp crash.
3. Exchange Reserve. The total volume of Bitcoin on exchanges continues to decline. This reflects long-term accumulation by ETFs, institutions, and self-custody advocates. From a supply perspective, this is an extremely positive signal: the amount of coins available for sale is decreasing.
4. Exchange Whale Ratio. This indicator assesses the share of large holders in exchange inflows. The ratio remains relatively high, indicating that whales are still actively moving funds. However, as analysts emphasize, high whale activity does not necessarily mean immediate sales. I recommend monitoring this factor particularly closely in the coming weeks.
Analyst conclusions
The main conclusion I draw from this data: the market structure is now more important than momentary price fluctuations. Combined with ETF flows and macroeconomic conditions, these four indicators provide a much clearer picture than a price chart alone.
Current on-chain data indicates the absence of global panic selling. The market is in a phase of consolidation and accumulation. However, whale activity remains an important risk factor to watch. If large players begin to massively move funds to exchanges, this could be the first harbinger of a trend change. For now, the market structure looks healthy and stable.
My professional opinion: the current picture is not the calm before the storm, but rather a sign of market maturity. Bitcoin is transitioning from a stage of speculative euphoria to a phase of institutional accumulation. This creates a foundation for more sustainable, albeit less volatile, growth in the long term.