The stock market has already begun to price in future benefits from artificial intelligence, even if companies are not yet using the technology. A large-scale study, based on an analysis of 380 trillion AI tokens, has identified a persistent phenomenon that economists have dubbed the "AI premium." Stocks of companies that investors consider future beneficiaries grow, on average, 0.64% faster per week than shares of other market participants.
How the return indicator was calculated
To quantify this effect, a group of researchers developed a special indicator — the "AI factor." It weekly records changes in global neural network consumption based on data from the OpenRouter platform, covering over 400 models (GPT, Claude, Deepseek) from January 2024 to April 2026. This dataset reflects about 2% of global monthly AI consumption.
Companies were then divided into two categories: those with high stock sensitivity to the growing popularity of neural networks and those with virtually zero reaction. Comparing the returns of these groups revealed a significant gap. It is this 0.64% weekly difference that was defined as the "AI premium."
At first glance, 0.64% per week may seem insignificant. However, in the long term, this effect accumulates, creating a colossal gap in market capitalization. The market is essentially revaluing assets based on future expectations rather than current financial performance.
Who benefits
The key finding of the study is that the AI premium has extended far beyond the technology sector. Not only IT giants but also retailers, consumer goods manufacturers, and even heavy industry demonstrate higher returns. Investors are pricing in expectations of productivity growth across all areas of business.
The geographic distribution of gains also turned out to be unexpected. The bulk of the premium is concentrated in the US and Europe — regions closely tied to building AI infrastructure. In emerging markets and China, this effect is significantly weaker. Market mechanisms reward proximity to advanced developments, which are currently available to only a few.
Another important discovery is that the driving force behind the premium is not millions of ordinary users, but the professional segment. Complex, lengthy queries and paid subscriptions generate the added value that the market prices into beneficiary stocks.
My analysis: This phenomenon is direct proof that we have entered an era of "expectations." Investors are voting not for current results, but for the potential of business transformation. Companies that can prove to the market their ability to deeply integrate AI into their processes will gain a significant competitive advantage in the form of higher capitalization. This is not just a technological trend — it is a new paradigm of value assessment.