The cryptocurrency market received a strong boost after the release of fresh US inflation data. Bitcoin not only surpassed the $65,000 mark but also managed to hold above this level, demonstrating resilience to volatility. At the time of writing this analysis, the leading cryptocurrency is trading near $65,340, gaining about 2% over the past 24 hours.
Macroeconomic Background: Inflation Slows, but Risks Remain
The key catalyst for the growth was the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June. Annual inflation slowed from 4.2% to 3.5%, which was below the consensus forecast of 3.8%. Even more significant was the decline in Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices — it fell from 2.9% to 2.6%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices decreased by 0.4%, the largest drop since April 2020. The main contribution to disinflation came from cheaper energy prices.
Bitcoin's reaction was immediate: after the data release, the price surged from $62,000 to $64,900 within minutes. Ethereum also showed strong growth, gaining over 4% and reaching the $1,933 mark. However, as the data shows, this spike is predominantly speculative in nature.
Capital Inflows and Institutional Behavior
Following the release of the statistics, the derivatives market saw a surge in activity. According to analysts, in the first hour after the announcement, the volume of purchases on Binance reached $1.2 billion, on OKX — $23.6 million, and on Deribit — $15 million. This suggests that large players actively used the moment for short-term speculation. Nevertheless, a sustained trend has not yet formed — price movement remains dependent on the news background and high volatility.
Institutional interest is also confirmed by spot ETF data. On July 14, net inflows into Bitcoin funds amounted to $181 million, with the bulk ($139 million) coming from BlackRock's IBIT. This followed an outflow of $425 million the day before, indicating continued unstable sentiment among institutional investors. Ethereum ETFs attracted $58.34 million, entirely due to BlackRock's product, while other funds showed zero dynamics.
Fed Rhetoric: Caution Without Signals for Rate Cuts
The speech by new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh before the House committee added caution. He noted that artificial intelligence could act as a disinflationary factor, but the regulator is not yet ready to declare victory over inflation. Warsh emphasized: "Some might look at today's data and say: 'Mission accomplished, everything is fine.' I don't think so." This statement reduced the probability of a key rate hike at the July 28–29 meeting from 42% to 12.3%, but did not give the market clear signals about policy easing.
Cryptalist Expert Opinion: The current situation resembles a "cat-and-mouse game" between the market and the Fed. Inflation is slowing faster than expected, but the regulator continues to adhere to hawkish rhetoric, fearing premature easing. For Bitcoin, this means short-term spikes are likely, but for sustainable growth above $65,000–$67,000, clearer signals about rate cuts or the resumption of QE are needed. Investors should remain cautious and not succumb to euphoria from a single CPI report.