While the market was correcting, the night brought a series of landmark events that will set the tone for trading on July 16. Market cap leaders show mixed dynamics, with statements from Strategy, a troubling Polymarket study, and Revolut's expansion taking center stage.
Market: Ethereum holds the line, Hyperliquid loses ground
Bitcoin (BTC) started the day with a slight decline. As of 07:35 Moscow time, the asset is trading around $64,579, fluctuating in the range of $64,361 – $65,507 over the past 24 hours. Ethereum (ETH) is showing sideways movement near the $1,923 mark.
Among the top 10 by market cap, Ethereum demonstrates the best dynamics over the day and week (+2.97% and +11.35%, respectively). The laggard over both 24 hours and the week is Hyperliquid, losing 1.88% and 1.80%.
In the extended top 100, leaders are Ondo (+13.51% over 24 hours) and Zcash (+24.81% over the week). The biggest losses for the day are seen in DeXe (-10.44%), and for the week — in Pi Network (-21.50%).
Top News: Strategy's debt, Polymarket manipulation, and Revolut's license
Strategy: "We're not going anywhere," but a critical price is named
Michael Saylor's company has no plans to stop buying bitcoin, despite recent sales. President and CEO Phong Le stated in an interview with Bloomberg TV that the company intends to remain the largest buyer of BTC for the foreseeable future. However, he clarified that risks to the company's debt would only arise if bitcoin falls to $8,000 – $10,000. Recall that Strategy recently sold BTC for over $215 million as part of capital management, but simultaneously raised about $467 million through stock sales, bringing its cash reserve to ~$3 billion. This is enough to pay dividends on preferred shares for nearly two years. This is a clear signal: the current strategy is not panic, but tactical liquidity management.
Stanford and Singapore: Polymarket — an ideal environment for manipulation
Researchers from Stanford University and the Singapore University of Social Sciences have found that five-minute bitcoin price prediction contracts on Polymarket create direct incentives for market manipulation. The essence is that the contract settlement is based on Chainlink data at the window's closing time. Traders can influence the BTC spot market just before expiration to ensure the desired outcome. Analysis of activity since July 2024 showed sharp spikes in spot market orders before settlement, followed by a rapid price reversal. Estimates suggest this redistributed about $1.28 million from retail traders to manipulators. The authors note that the problem is solvable: increasing the contract duration from 5 to 15 minutes almost completely neutralizes the effect.
Revolut: Preliminary approval from VARA to operate in the UAE
British fintech giant Revolut has received preliminary approval from Dubai's Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) to provide crypto services in the UAE. This involves broker-dealer, management, investment, and exchange services. Previously, the UAE Central Bank had already given consent for Revolut's operations in the region. The company states that users in the app and on the Revolut X exchange will be able to buy, sell, and store digital assets. This decision follows Revolut obtaining a UK banking license in March. The company is also awaiting decisions on banking licenses in the US and Peru. Expansion into the UAE is not just entering a new market but a strategic move into one of the fastest-growing and most crypto-friendly regions in the world.
My comment: The night showed that the market is in a consolidation phase, but fundamental news creates interesting entry points. Strategy's statement is a powerful psychological anchor, and the Polymarket study is a reminder to be doubly cautious in DeFi. Revolut, in turn, continues the institutionalization of the industry, which is positive for the entire sector in the long term.