A day after the release of fresh US inflation data, Bitcoin has firmly established itself above the $65,000 mark, retaining most of the gained momentum. At the time of writing this analysis, the leading cryptocurrency is trading near $65,340, showing a daily increase of 2%. This positive signal has triggered a renewed inflow of capital into cryptocurrency funds, indicating a return of interest from institutional investors.
Inflation Slows, but the Fed Remains Cautious
The key driver of the growth was the slowdown in annual US inflation from 4.2% to 3.5%, against a forecast of 3.8%. The core CPI index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also declined — from 2.9% to 2.6%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 0.4%, marking the largest drop since April 2020. The main contributor to this was the decrease in energy prices.
The market reaction was immediate: within minutes of the CPI release, Bitcoin's price surged from $62,000 to $64,900. Ethereum also responded with a gain of over 4%, reaching the $1,933 mark. According to my data, within the first hour after the statistics were released, the volume of purchases on Binance amounted to $1.2 billion, with a spike in activity recorded on OKX ($23.6 million) and Deribit ($15 million). However, it is important to emphasize that this movement is predominantly speculative in nature and does not yet form a sustainable trend.
Derivatives Market and the Fed's Stance
Analysis of activity in the derivatives market shows that the price increase was driven by an aggressive influx of buyers. Traders continue to play on high volatility, closely watching macroeconomic signals. At the same time, the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh spoke before Congress, calling AI a disinflationary factor but emphasizing that the regulator is not ready to declare victory over inflation and gave no clear signals about a rate cut. The probability of a key rate hike at the July meeting decreased from 42% to 12.3%, which provides a positive backdrop for risky assets.
Inflows into ETFs: A Trend Shift
On July 14, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs amounted to $181 million, with $139 million of that coming from BlackRock's IBIT fund. This followed a significant outflow of $425 million the day before. Ethereum funds attracted $58.34 million, fully backed by BlackRock's ETF. Since the beginning of July, periods of inflows and outflows have alternated every few days, indicating uncertainty in the market.
My Expert Conclusion: The current dynamics represent a classic reaction to macroeconomic data, but without a clear trend. The market is caught between hopes for a Fed policy easing and persistent geopolitical risks. Sustainable growth above $65,000 is only possible with confirmation of a rate cut or new positive signals from the regulator. For now, we are observing a "news-driven trading" environment with high volatility.