The end of the transitional period of the MiCA Regulation (Markets in Crypto-Assets) on July 1, 2025, has created a unique stress situation for the crypto industry of the European Union. According to estimates by Bruna Szego, head of the Anti-Money Laundering Authority (AMLA), a mass migration of users could lead to overload for both exiting and remaining crypto services.
The crux of the problem lies in a double pressure. Companies that have not obtained a MiCA license and are leaving the EU market risk facing an avalanche of client withdrawals. At the same time, legally operating Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) must be prepared for a sharp influx of new users. In both cases, the burden on KYC (Know Your Customer) procedures and AML (Anti-Money Laundering) compliance increases manifold, creating fertile ground for errors and abuses.
New Operating Order in the EU
Let me remind you that before July 1, firms could operate under national licenses if they started activities before December 30, 2024. Now, full registration under MiCA is required to provide services. According to the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), by the end of the transitional period, there were 244 licensed providers on the register. In the final days before the deadline, companies from Italy, France, Malta, and Spain joined them. On July 6, fintech giant Ripple also received full authorization.
ESMA has already demanded that unlicensed companies immediately cease operations in the region and launched an inspection program for custodial services — the most vulnerable link in the digital asset storage chain.
AMLA Action Plan
On the eve of the deadline, AMLA issued an advisory note with specific recommendations for crypto companies. The document outlines measures both for firms leaving the market and for licensed VASPs taking on new clients. By the end of the year, the regulator plans to publish a report on money laundering threats in the crypto industry and practices for monitoring service providers in EU countries. Additionally, the agency is actively expanding its blockchain analytics capabilities.
According to Szego, the results of this study will allow AMLA to coordinate work with national regulators and develop a unified approach to overseeing crypto services. In July, the European Parliament also approved an official position on further regulation of digital assets, which includes expanding oversight of DeFi, NFTs, staking, and crypto lending.
My analysis: The current situation is a classic example of regulatory zugzwang. On one hand, stricter rules are necessary to protect investors. On the other, the abrupt transition creates operational risks that could undermine trust in the system. The key question is: can the remaining 244 licensed providers handle the load without reducing compliance quality? If not, a second wave of market exits is inevitable, and this time it will affect not only companies but also users.