A mass exodus of unlicensed crypto services and a sharp influx of clients into legal companies — these are the two key scenarios that, according to my analysis, are currently threatening the financial stability of the European Union. The head of the Anti-Money Laundering Authority (AMLA), Bruna Szego, stated directly: after July 1, when the transitional period of the MiCA regulation expired, the burden on KYC (Know Your Customer) and AML (Anti-Money Laundering) procedures could become critical.
What is the essence of the problem? Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) that failed to obtain a license under the new rules are forced to leave the EU market. Their clients are massively withdrawing funds, creating an avalanche-like load on verification systems. Simultaneously, legal companies registered in the ESMA register (at the end of the transitional period, there were 244, including recently certified Ripple, as well as firms from Italy, France, Malta, and Spain) face the opposite effect — a sharp influx of users. In both cases, there is a shortage of resources for transaction verification and an increased risk of money laundering.
New Rules of the Game: MiCA in Action
From July 1, 2025, all crypto firms operating in the EU are required to have full MiCA authorization. ESMA has already demanded that companies without permission immediately cease operations. Moreover, the regulator has launched a program to check the operational resilience of custodians (CASPs), increasing pressure on the sector. I remind you that before this date, firms could operate under national licenses if they started operations before December 30, 2024.
AMLA's Plan: What's Next?
AMLA is not sitting idly by. On the eve of the deadline, the agency issued an advisory note with recommendations — both for departing companies and for VASPs accepting new clients. By the end of the year, the regulator promises to publish a report on money laundering threats in the crypto industry and expand the capabilities of blockchain analytics. According to Szego, this data will help coordinate actions with national regulators and develop unified supervision.
My expert commentary: The situation resembles a "perfect storm." MiCA closes loopholes, but the transitional period created a time gap that unscrupulous players could exploit. It is particularly alarming that the European Parliament has already approved expanding regulation to DeFi, NFTs, and staking — this means pressure will only increase. The market will have to adapt to a new reality where the speed of legalization becomes a key competitive advantage.