The end of the MiCA regulation transition period on July 1, 2025, has created a unique situation in the European crypto market, which could lead to serious operational risks. The head of the Anti-Money Laundering Authority (AMLA), Bruna Szego, directly pointed to the potential overload of crypto services in the European Union due to a mass migration of users.
The core of the problem is as follows: companies leaving the EU due to non-compliance with new requirements risk facing an avalanche of client fund withdrawals. At the same time, licensed Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) expect a sharp influx of new users. Both scenarios create enormous pressure on KYC/AML procedures and compliance departments, which may simply be unable to handle such a volume of operations within a short timeframe.
The New Regulatory Landscape: What Has Changed
Since July 1, 2025, all crypto firms operating in the EU are required to have full MiCA registration. Before this date, companies could operate based on national licenses if they had started operations before December 30, 2024. At the end of the transition period, the ESMA register listed 244 licensed providers, with companies from Italy, France, Malta, and Spain joining the list in the final days before the deadline. On July 6, Ripple also received full MiCA authorization, underscoring the seriousness of regulators' intentions.
It is important to note that ESMA has already demanded that unlicensed firms immediately cease operations in the region and has launched an inspection program for custodial services—the most vulnerable link in the digital asset storage chain.
AMLA's Plan: From Recommendations to Actions
On the eve of the deadline, AMLA issued an advisory note with specific recommendations for companies leaving the market and for licensed VASPs taking on new clients. By the end of the year, the regulator plans to publish a full report on money laundering threats in the crypto industry and practices for controlling service providers in EU countries. Simultaneously, the agency is expanding its blockchain analytics capabilities, which will allow for more effective tracking of suspicious transactions.
Szego emphasized that the results of this study will form the basis for coordinating work with national regulators and developing a unified approach to overseeing crypto services. Meanwhile, the European Parliament has already approved an official position on further expanding MiCA to DeFi, NFTs, staking, and crypto lending—meaning regulatory pressure will only intensify.
My comment: The situation resembles a "perfect storm": the mass exodus of some companies and the influx of clients to others create temporary chaos that could be exploited by malicious actors. In my view, the key risk is not so much the system overload, but rather that the quality of checks will decline under time pressure, inevitably leading to an increase in money laundering-related incidents. The market will need at least 6–12 months to adapt to the new realities.