BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has once again caught the attention of on-chain analysts. On July 15, he made two large Ethereum purchases totaling over 1,900 ETH. The first transaction went through FalconX: Hayes transferred $1.25 million in USDC to the broker, after which Galaxy Digital sent 646.33 ETH (~$1.24 million) to his wallet. Shortly after, the businessman bought an additional 1,293 ETH for $2.48 million. The total volume of these one-time purchases amounted to approximately $3.72 million.
This move looks particularly noteworthy against the backdrop of recent history. At the end of June, Hayes sold 6,000 ETH at a loss of about $606,000, despite having built up this position just a few weeks earlier. At that time, he also exited Worldcoin, Zcash, NEAR, and Hyperliquid, citing high energy prices, listings of AI-sector companies, and political risks for the crypto market. However, the current series of purchases demonstrates a complete reversal of strategy.
At the time of writing this analysis, Ethereum is trading around $1,920, showing a daily increase of 2.79%. The asset's market capitalization is firmly holding at $231 billion. Besides ETH, Hayes' portfolio includes other positions with mixed dynamics. At the end of June, he purchased the Synapse (SYN) utility token for $2.2 million. Since then, SYN has crashed by more than 55%, and Hayes' position is down approximately 28%, equivalent to an unrealized loss of $610,000.
The entrepreneur has fared better with Bitcoin: his June forecast of BTC falling to $40,000 was confirmed a few weeks later when a major Chinese mining company cited the same level, referencing his analysis.
Analyst's comment: Arthur Hayes' actions are a classic example of high-risk counter-trend trading. The loss-making exit from ETH at the end of June and the subsequent aggressive accumulation of the position at a lower price indicate an attempt at dollar-cost averaging. However, a series of unsuccessful trades with SYN and other altcoins calls into question the effectiveness of his current strategy. The market seems unforgiving even to experienced players who display excessive overconfidence.