The morning of July 16 greets us with mixed dynamics. Bitcoin (BTC) started the day with a slight decline and at the time of writing the review is trading around $64,579. Over 24 hours, the asset fluctuated in the range from $64,361 to $65,507. Ethereum (ETH) is showing sideways movement, settling at $1,923.
In the top 10 by market cap, Ethereum shows the best performance over the day and week: +2.97% and +11.35%, respectively. Among the laggards is Hyperliquid, losing 1.88% over 24 hours and 1.80% over the week. In the broader top 100, Ondo (+13.51% daily) and Zcash (+24.81% weekly) are leading. The worst results are from DeXe (-10.44% daily) and Pi (-21.50% weekly).
Strategy: Purchases Will Continue, But There's a Caveat
Michael Saylor's company, now known as Strategy, has no plans to wind down its bitcoin strategy. President and CEO Phong Le stated in an interview with Bloomberg TV: "We are not going anywhere." However, he clarified that risks to the company's debt would only arise if bitcoin falls to $8,000–10,000. As a reminder, Strategy recently sold over $215 million worth of BTC as part of capital management, but simultaneously raised about $467 million through stock sales, increasing its cash reserve to approximately $3 billion. According to the company's own estimates, this is enough to cover dividend payments on preferred shares for nearly two years ahead.
Polymarket in the Crosshairs: Five-Minute Contracts Create Incentives for Manipulation
Researchers from Stanford University and the Singapore Management University have identified a vulnerability on the Polymarket prediction market. Analysis showed that five-minute bitcoin contracts create incentives for price manipulation at the time of settlement. Since settlement is based on Chainlink data at the window's close, traders have motivation to influence the spot market just before the contract expires. The scientists recorded sharp spikes in orders on the spot market followed by a rapid price reversal. According to their estimates, this redistributed about $1.28 million from retail traders to manipulators. Notably, extending the contract duration from five to 15 minutes almost completely eliminates this effect.
Revolut Prepares for Expansion in the UAE
British fintech giant Revolut has received preliminary approval from Dubai's Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) to provide crypto services in the UAE. This includes broker-dealer, management, investment, and exchange services. Previously, the UAE Central Bank gave its consent for Revolut's operations in the region. The company notes that its services in the app and on the Revolut X exchange will allow local users to buy, sell, and store digital assets. This decision follows Revolut obtaining a UK banking license in March. The company is also awaiting decisions on banking license applications in the US and Peru.
My comment: Strategy's statement is a powerful signal for the market. The $8,000–10,000 level as a "point of no return" seems highly unlikely under current conditions, confirming the long-term confidence of the largest corporate holder. As for Polymarket, this is another reminder that decentralized prediction markets are not immune to classic market manipulations, especially over ultra-short timeframes.