The morning of July 16 brings mixed signals. Bitcoin started the day with a slight decline, trading around $64,579. The 24-hour low was $64,361, and the high was $65,507. Ethereum, on the other hand, is showing sideways movement at $1,923, yet it is posting the best results both daily (+2.97%) and weekly (+11.35%) among the top 10 coins.
Strategy keeps up the pace
Michael Saylor's company, Strategy, has no plans to stop buying Bitcoin despite recent sales. President and CEO Phong Le stated in an interview with Bloomberg TV that the company intends to remain the largest buyer of BTC in the foreseeable future. Notably, management only considers risks to its debt if Bitcoin falls to $8,000–10,000. Last week, Strategy raised approximately $467 million through stock sales, bringing its cash reserve to $3 billion—enough to cover dividend payments on preferred shares for nearly two years.
Manipulation on Polymarket: a threat to retail traders
Researchers from Stanford and the National University of Singapore have identified a serious issue with Polymarket's five-minute Bitcoin contracts. They found that such contracts create incentives for price manipulation on the spot market just before settlement. Analysis of activity following the launch of these contracts in July 2024 revealed sharp spikes in BTC spot market orders, followed by rapid price reversals. Estimates suggest manipulators redistributed about $1.28 million from ordinary traders to themselves. The authors emphasize that the problem lies not in the nature of prediction markets, but in the excessively short settlement window—extending the contract duration to 15 minutes almost completely eliminates the effect.
Revolut storms the UAE
British fintech giant Revolut has received preliminary approval from Dubai's Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) to offer crypto services in the UAE. This includes broker-dealer, management, and investment services, as well as exchange operations. Previously, the UAE Central Bank had given consent for Revolut's activities in the region. The company states that its services on the app and the Revolut X exchange will allow local users to buy, sell, and store digital assets. This approval follows Revolut's acquisition of a UK banking license in March and is part of its global expansion—the company is also awaiting decisions on banking licenses in the US and Peru.
My analysis: The morning dynamics highlight market consolidation. Strategy's statements serve as a powerful psychological anchor for bulls, but the detected manipulations on Polymarket remind us of the vulnerability of decentralized platforms. By entering the UAE, Revolut is betting on the region as a new global hub, which could strengthen institutional inflows in the coming quarters.