A well-known economist and gold advocate has once again criticized the first cryptocurrency, predicting a catastrophic decline. According to his estimates, Bitcoin could lose up to 70% of its current value and fall to the $20,000 mark. In his analysis, he paid particular attention to the strategy of the company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and its co-founder Michael Saylor, which he called a dead end.

Strategy Crisis: Selling Shares Instead of Bitcoin

Recall that under the Strategy brand, Michael Saylor has accumulated over 847,000 BTC, making the company the largest public holder of the cryptocurrency. However, recent financial maneuvers raise serious questions. In recent weeks, we have observed:

  • A pause in purchases: The company has not bought Bitcoin for three consecutive weeks.
  • Profit-taking: Strategy recently sold 3,588 BTC, partially realizing accumulated profits.
  • Stock issuance: Instead of selling digital assets, the company raised $450 million by issuing new common shares.

The economist rightly points out the illogical nature of this decision. As a result of the issuance, the company's total reserves grew to $3 billion, but the market value of Strategy's shares themselves turned out to be significantly lower than the valuation of the cryptocurrency portfolio on its balance sheet. In his opinion, Saylor preferred to "dilute" shareholder capital rather than use his promising reserves—Bitcoin—to raise funds.

The essence of the criticism is that Saylor has trapped himself. Any large-scale sale of Bitcoin would inevitably crash the market, and all participants understand this. The market is already pricing in this risk, putting pressure on the asset even without actual sales by Strategy. The economist emphasizes that Saylor is so afraid of selling the cryptocurrency that he is willing to sell his own shares at a huge discount.

Technical Analysis and Support Zone

From a technical perspective, the analyst highlights key levels. Resistance is around $65,000, and the nearest support is near $58,000. If Bitcoin breaks below this level, the next target will be the zone below $50,000. However, the main "safety cushion," in his opinion, lies in the $30,000–$20,000 range—price levels that BTC has not visited for many years.

Notably, he has partially revised his position, acknowledging that buying Bitcoin 15 years ago would have been a justified decision. Nevertheless, he does not regret his investments over the past five years.

My comment as an analyst: Peter Schiff's forecasts are a classic example of a "bearish" narrative fueled by the fundamental problems of the largest institutional holder. The risk of a systemic liquidity squeeze cannot be ignored if Strategy indeed finds itself in a position of a forced seller. However, in my view, the scenario of a drop to $20,000 is unlikely in the current macroeconomic context, especially given the capital inflow through spot ETFs. Rather, we will see a prolonged consolidation in a wide range until the market digests the new structure of institutional demand and supply.