The Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin market is entering a critical phase. The project team has announced plans to release up to 9.6% of the total supply into circulation — approximately 96 million tokens. At the current price of $1.57, this volume is valued at roughly $150 million. For comparison, this represents nearly 40% of the current circulating supply, which stands at 237 million coins. The scale of the potential influx is comparable to the asset's three-day trading volume, which remains at around $55 million per day.
Currently, TRUMP is trading 98% below its all-time high of $73.43, recorded in January 2025. Over the past month, the decline has been 22%, and over the past year — 83%. The minimum value of $1.50 was updated on June 6. The token's market capitalization is $372 million, placing it only 120th among all cryptocurrencies.
Structure Weighing on the Price
According to the public unlock schedule, approximately 67% of the maximum supply of 1 billion tokens has already been unlocked. However, only 237 million are in actual circulation. A massive volume of coins (over 430 million) remains off the market, allocated to partnerships, asset purchases, the TRUMP Coin Club program, and a mobile game.
The key issue is the concentration of power. 80% of the supply is controlled by two entities: CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC. Their access to tokens is locked for three years, but they earn from trading fees. Meanwhile, since February, developers have sold or transferred only about 5% of the unlocked volume into circulation.
Liquidity Cannot Withstand
The team's attempts to stimulate demand appear modest. For example, the TRUMP-SOL liquidity pool on the Kamino platform grew from $2,000 in March to a peak of $1.66 million in May. But even this peak is only 1% of the potential $150 million that could flood the market. Grants for entrepreneurs and game waitlist participants amount to $1 million each — a drop in the ocean compared to the expected pressure.
Data from the analytical platform Nansen shows that nearly one million buyers since launch are at a net loss. Total losses are estimated at $3.81 billion. Critics, including renowned financier Peter Schiff, call the token merely a sale of brand access without real technological development. Moreover, senators are already calling for a ban on such memecoins following news of creators' potential profits of $636 million.
My opinion: TRUMP is a classic example of an overvalued asset with fundamental issues. Even if the team acts cautiously, the memecoin market is at a two-year low in dominance. Absorbing 96 million new tokens without a serious price drop is nearly impossible. Investors should prepare for further decline, not recovery.