A key indicator signaling a possible end to the bearish phase has begun to reverse. This refers to the realized losses of bitcoin holders who purchased coins in 2024–2025. After peaking in early July, when the 30-day sum of these losses exceeded $75 million, the metric has started to decline. In past cycles, such dynamics have repeatedly preceded the start of an upward trend.
When an asset's price gets stuck in a range for an extended period, it is this group of investors—those who bought at the peak of the previous cycle—that most often capitulates, locking in losses and increasing pressure on the market. Historically, a sustainable bottom formed precisely when this flow of "burned-out" sellers dried up. We are now witnessing such a process: the volume of loss-making trades from short-term holders (1–2 years) is decreasing, which is one of the earliest signs of the bearish grip weakening.
Key Milestone: $69,000
The resistance zone at the $69,000 level deserves special attention. This milestone has a dual significance: first, it is close to the aggregate cost basis of short-term holders, and second, it coincides with the all-time highs of the previous bull cycle. The first touch of this level will likely trigger a strong market reaction, as it is here that the bulk of recent buyers will begin to break even, prompting profit-taking and selling.
If bitcoin manages to confidently establish itself above $69,000, it will open the door for significant growth. Otherwise, the asset risks remaining in its current range, continuing to consolidate. At the time of writing this analysis, the price of bitcoin is around $64,200, which is 0.7% lower than the previous day's level.
Expert Commentary: The decline in realized losses is a positive but still preliminary signal. It indicates that "weak hands" have left the market, but to confirm a reversal, we need to see sustained growth in buying volumes and a breakout of key resistance. For now, we are looking at a classic picture of a fading bearish phase, but without a catalyst for upward momentum.