Network data analysis shows a significant decline in realized losses among Bitcoin holders who acquired coins in 2024–2025. This dynamic, repeatedly observed in previous market cycles, has historically preceded the start of a sustained upward trend.
When the price is stuck in a sideways range or declines, this cohort of investors typically increases loss realization—a process known as capitulation. This creates additional pressure on the market. However, the key moment arrives when this flow dries up: sellers "burn out," and the market stops receiving new supply from participants exiting at a loss. It is at this point, as history shows, that a sustainable bottom often forms.
A vivid example of this pattern was observed from July 2024 to July 2025, when Bitcoin, overcoming the capitulation phase, rose from $62,800 to $107,000. Currently, we see a similar picture: in early July, the 30-day sum of realized losses exceeded $75 million, after which the indicator began to decline steadily.
It is important to emphasize: this is a preliminary signal, not a guarantee of a reversal. However, when the volume of losses "cools down," it often turns out to be one of the earliest indicators of the end of sell-offs.
Key Resistance Level: $69,000
The next important milestone for Bitcoin to watch is the $69,000 mark. This level consolidates two powerful resistances at once: the aggregate cost basis of short-term holders and the previous all-time highs of the last bull cycle.
The first encounter with this zone is likely to trigger a strong market reaction. Historically, the greatest selling pressure comes precisely from those exiting "at breakeven"—that is, investors whose purchase price coincides with the current market price. A confident consolidation above $69,000 will open the path for further growth for Bitcoin. Otherwise, the asset risks remaining in its current range.
At the time of writing this analysis, Bitcoin is trading near $64,200, losing 0.7% over the day. Let me remind you that on July 14, amid the release of US inflation data, the rate briefly rose above $65,000.
My professional opinion: The decline in realized losses is a positive but not final signal. The market needs confirmation in the form of a confident breakout of the $69,000 level and a shift in volume in favor of buyers. Until this happens, we remain in a consolidation phase, and any positive dynamics may only be a local bounce.