The Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin market has faced a serious challenge. The project team announced plans to release up to 9.6% of the total supply into circulation, equivalent to approximately 96 million tokens. At the current exchange rate, this volume is valued at $150 million.
TRUMP is currently trading at $1.57, which is 98% below its all-time high of $73.43 recorded in January 2025. Over the past year, the asset has lost 83% of its value, and over the last 30 days, an additional 22%. The minimum value of $1.50 was reached on June 6. The token's market capitalization stands at $372 million, placing it only 120th among all cryptocurrencies.
Key Issue: Supply and Demand Imbalance
The volume of 96 million tokens ready for release accounts for 40% of the current circulating supply (237 million coins). This volume is also equivalent to nearly three days of trading turnover, which remains at $55 million per day. Such scales raise serious doubts about the possibility of a quick price recovery.
The situation is exacerbated by the fact that out of 670 million already unlocked tokens (67% of the maximum supply of 1 billion), only 237 million are in circulation. The rest remain off the market, allocated to partnerships, asset purchases, the TRUMP Coin Club, and a mobile game. However, past experience shows that investors are extremely skeptical. According to data from the analytical platform Nansen, nearly one million buyers since the project's launch are still at a net loss, with total losses estimated at $3.81 billion.
Liquidity Does Not Help
The project team is taking steps to stimulate demand by allocating funds to liquidity. For example, the company Kamino distributed approximately 114,000 TRUMP (about $180,000), which increased the TRUMP-SOL pool from $2,000 in March to a maximum of $1.66 million in May. However, even this peak amounts to only about 1% of the potential $150 million that could enter the market. Spending on demand stimulation is also modest: $1 million went to grants for entrepreneurs and another $1 million to participants on the mobile game's waiting list.
Critics of the project often claim that the creators are simply selling access to the brand rather than developing real technology. Renowned financier Peter Schiff has openly criticized the token, and one senator called for a ban on memecoins following news of the creators' potential profit of $636 million.
My Expert Opinion: The memecoin market is currently at a two-year low, and TRUMP is no exception. If internal ecosystem demand cannot absorb the 96 million new tokens, expecting a price increase is hardly realistic. Investors should exercise extreme caution—there are no fundamental catalysts for a trend reversal in sight.