The Bitcoin market is showing a significant shift in sentiment among long-term participants. The volume of realized losses among holders who acquired coins in 2024–2025 has begun to decline steadily. In previous cycles, such dynamics have repeatedly served as a precursor to the start of an upward movement.
The group of investors with a holding period of 1 to 2 years consists of those who bought near previous cyclical highs. When the price gets stuck in a sideways trend or slow decline, these participants are the first to start locking in losses, capitulating and increasing selling pressure. Historically, a sustainable bottom forms precisely after this flow dries up: sellers "burn out," and the market stops receiving new supply from those exiting at a loss.
A similar pattern was observed from July 2024 to July 2025. At that time, Bitcoin rose from $62,800 to $107,000 — an increase of nearly 70%.
In early July of this year, the 30-day sum of realized losses exceeded $75 million. However, the indicator soon began to decline. When this metric cools down, it often turns out to be one of the earliest signals of the end of sell-offs. It is important to understand: this is a preliminary signal, not a guarantee of a reversal or a confirmed bottom.
Key Threshold — $69,000
Meanwhile, analysts have identified the next important resistance level for Bitcoin — $69,000. This zone is associated with the aggregate cost basis of short-term holders and previous all-time highs from the past bull cycle. The first encounter with this level is likely to trigger a strong market reaction: those who break even are most inclined to sell.
A confident consolidation above the $69,000 mark will open up room for further growth for Bitcoin. Otherwise, the asset risks getting stuck in the current consolidation range.
At the time of writing the analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $64,200, down 0.7% over the past 24 hours. On July 14, the release of US inflation data triggered a short-term spike above $65,000, but no sustained breakout followed.
My expert assessment: The decline in realized losses among 1–2 year holders is a classic sign of "weak hands burning out." However, for a full-fledged reversal, the market needs to overcome the $69,000 zone. Until this happens, it is premature to talk about a trend change. Keep an eye on the sales volume of short-term speculators — it will be the trigger for the next move.