The Ethereum market is showing a confident recovery: the asset has gained 11% over the past seven days, once again surpassing the psychologically important mark of $1900. This is the best result since the beginning of June, and, as my observations show, this movement has a solid foundation.
The key catalyst was macroeconomic data. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 3.5% against the forecasted 3.8%, marking the strongest monthly decline since 2020. This instantly adjusted market expectations: the probability of a Fed rate hike in July plummeted to 8%, unlocking capital inflows into risk assets.
Phenomenal ETH/BTC Reversal
The dynamics of the ETH/BTC pair deserve special attention. After months of lagging behind Bitcoin, Ethereum has finally begun to outpace its older counterpart in terms of growth rate. This is a powerful signal of large capital rotation. I attribute this to three factors: progress on the Japanese crypto-ETF bill, a net inflow of $58 million into US spot ETH-ETFs, and, most importantly, a technical breakout of the multi-month downtrend in the ETH/BTC pair.
The volume of short liquidations on Ethereum exceeded $113 million in the last 24 hours. Open interest in futures has surged to a monthly high, and large purchases are being recorded on spot exchanges. This indicates that professional players are returning to the asset.
Key Levels to Monitor
The market is currently in a consolidation zone around $1885. For the uptrend to continue, buyers need to establish a foothold above $1950. A breakout of the psychological barrier at $2000 would open a direct path to $2200 — I consider this range to be the target for the coming weeks.
However, a possible correction should not be ruled out. The RSI indicator is already overbought, so short-term profit-taking would be logical. The key line of defense is the $1740 level — losing it would send ETH back into a sideways trend. More conservative traders are waiting for a consolidation above $2100 to talk about a full-fledged return of the bull market.
My professional opinion: The reversal of the ETH/BTC pair is not just a technical signal, but a fundamental shift in sentiment. If ETF inflows continue and the macroeconomic backdrop remains favorable, we will see a test of $2000 in the coming days. The main risk is an unexpected tightening of Fed rhetoric, but current data contradicts this.