The team behind U.S. President Donald Trump's memecoin, The Official Trump (TRUMP), has announced plans to release up to 9.6% of the total supply into circulation — approximately 96 million tokens. At the current price, this volume is estimated at around $150 million. Given that the asset itself is already trading 98% below its January 2025 high of $73.43, the news sounds like a death sentence for retail holders.
The scale of the potential dump is alarming: 96 million coins represent nearly 40% of the current circulating supply (237 million tokens). For comparison, this is equivalent to almost three days of trading volume, which currently stands at $55 million per day. The market simply cannot absorb such a volume without a catastrophic price drop.
According to the project's latest report, about 67% of the maximum supply of 1 billion tokens has already been unlocked. However, since February, the creators have transferred into circulation or sold only about 5% of that volume. The remaining 670 million coins are technically available but remain off the market for now — some of them are planned to be allocated to partnerships, asset purchases, the TRUMP Coin Club, and a mobile game.
The key issue lies in the distribution of shares. 80% of the supply is controlled by two entities: CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC. Access to their coins is locked for three years, but both companies earn from the token's trading fees. This creates a conflict of interest: the higher the trading volume, the greater the creators' profit, even if the asset's price collapses.
Analytics from the Nansen platform confirm the worst fears: nearly one million buyers since the project's launch are still at a net loss. The total amount of losses is estimated at $3.81 billion. This is not just "red numbers" — it is a systemic failure of tokenomics.
Liquidity doesn't save
The team is trying to stimulate demand by allocating funds to liquidity. For example, Kamino distributed about 114,000 TRUMP (approximately $180,000), which raised the TRUMP-SOL pool from $2,000 in March to a peak of $1.66 million in May. However, even this peak represents only about 1% of the potential $150 million that could flood the market. Spending on grants and incentives ($1 million for entrepreneurs and $1 million for participants on the game's waitlist) is a drop in the ocean.
The market is not creating support. TRUMP is holding around $1.57: a decline of 83% over the year, and 22% over the last 30 days. The minimum value of $1.50 was recorded on June 6. The token's market capitalization is $372 million, placing it only 120th among cryptocurrencies.
Critics of the project rightly point out that the creators are simply selling access to the brand rather than developing real technology. Renowned financier Peter Schiff has openly criticized the token, and one senator called for a ban on memecoins following news of the creators' potential profit of $636 million.
My professional opinion: The team promises to act cautiously, but the numbers suggest otherwise. If internal ecosystem demand cannot absorb 96 million new tokens — and given the two-year low in memecoin dominance, this is unlikely — there is no reason to expect price growth. TRUMP is a classic example of a token skewed in favor of insiders, where the retail investor remains a hostage to the unlock schedule. The only rational scenario is continued downward pressure on the price with a gradual waning of interest.