The current bull market in U.S. stocks is confidently writing its name in history. The S&P 500 index has shown a 95% increase from the lows of late 2022, placing it among the top ten strongest rallies in the last 96 years. This achievement is not just a statistical anomaly but a marker of an exceptional phase of the cycle that we are observing in real time.
Unprecedented strength against historical data
To understand the scale: in the top 25% of the most powerful bull markets of the past, the average gain over a similar period was about 50%. The median result was much more modest—only 35% over 3.5 years. The current rally has remained in the strongest top ten for over two years, even accounting for the correction in March-April 2025. Particularly impressive is the surge from the April 2025 low—the index soared by 51%, indicating an extremely strong momentum.
Parallels with the dot-com bubble: coincidence or pattern?
However, beneath the external strength lies a troubling signal. An analyst under the pseudonym Qmo overlaid the current S&P 500 chart on the trajectory of the dot-com crash and found an almost perfect match in structural phases: a sharp surge, a pullback, a first correction, a weak recovery, and preparation for a collapse. According to his data, during the dot-com crash, the S&P 500 fell by 49%, the Nasdaq by nearly 78%, and the decline itself lasted over two years.
Qmo emphasizes that he does not expect a literal repeat, but ignoring such a close structural match is dangerous. The current index is dominated by tech giant stocks, valuations are approaching extremes, and retail investors are fully positioned for growth—classic signs of a late-stage bubble.
Two sides of the same coin
At first glance, the data appears contradictory: experts record powerful momentum, while analysts see in the same unrestrained strength and high valuations classic signs of overheating. But this is not a contradiction; it is a characteristic of an overheated market. The longer the rally lasts, the more acute the question of its sustainability becomes.
My view: The market is at a unique bifurcation point. The exceptional strength of the current rally does not negate the risks but, on the contrary, amplifies them. Investors should closely monitor macroeconomic triggers and reconsider allocation in favor of assets with low correlation to indices. History teaches that the strongest bubbles burst with the greatest speed.