The current bull cycle in the U.S. stock market has officially entered the top of the most powerful in nearly the last hundred years. From the lows of late 2022, the S&P 500 index has surged by 95%, placing this rally among exceptional historical events.
This result puts the current rally in the top 10% of the strongest bull markets in history since 1928. For comparison: the median bull market over the same period brought investors only about 35% profit, while the average for the top 25% of rallies was approximately 50%. The current growth has been among the top ten strongest for two years already, even considering the correction we saw in March-April 2025.
Especially impressive is the momentum from the April 2025 low: the S&P 500 gained 51% in just a few months. This speaks to the exceptional strength of the bullish sentiment, which, however, carries certain risks.
Parallels with the Dot-Com Bubble: A Warning Signal or Just a Coincidence?
The flip side of this coin has not escaped analysts' attention. Some experts draw alarming parallels between the current market structure and the dot-com crash of the early 2000s. Overlaying the charts shows an almost perfect match of stages: a sharp surge, a pullback, the first correction, a weak recovery, and preparation for a potential collapse.
During the dot-com crash, the S&P 500 fell by about 49%, the Nasdaq index lost nearly 78%, and the decline itself lasted more than two years. Today's situation is characterized as "alarmingly similar": the dominance of tech giant stocks, extreme valuations, and retail investors' complete focus on growth.
It is important to emphasize: no one expects a literal repeat of the 2000 scenario. However, ignoring such a close structural coincidence would be imprudent. Record growth and a growing risk of a reversal are not a contradiction, but characteristic features of an overheated market, where each new day of the rally heightens the question of its sustainability.
Expert opinion: We see a classic dilemma: the historical strength of the bullish momentum versus historically similar signs of overheating. For crypto investors, this is an important lesson — markets do not grow forever, and the higher the rise, the harder the landing may be. Now is the time for balanced risk management, not for reckless pursuit of profit.