Bitcoin is beginning to lose its close connection with traditional assets, and in my opinion, this is an extremely positive signal for the entire market. The observed decoupling from the technology sector is not a coincidence but a natural stage in the evolution of the leading cryptocurrency, bringing it closer to Satoshi Nakamoto's original vision.
Until the end of 2025, BTC showed a strong correlation with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF, which tracks the technology software sector. Many analysts, including myself, have noted this. However, this link is now starting to break down, and I consider this a very positive development. The more independence Bitcoin gains from traditional assets, the closer it gets to its original form—a decentralized, sovereign monetary system independent of Wall Street's decisions.
This is precisely why, I believe, the next bull market may deceive many. Analysts who still rely on traditional market metrics risk making flawed decisions. Over the next three years, I foresee a divergence in assets: stocks may weaken, while cryptocurrency enters a new bull market and moves in the opposite direction. Bitcoin does not need Wall Street's permission to rise in price.
Evolution of the Position: From Tech Paper to Independence
I have been developing my view on Bitcoin's connection to the tech sector for several months. As early as February, I highlighted the asset's strong correlation with the SaaS and technology software sector. At that time, I described Bitcoin differently—as a risky tech paper that moves more sharply than the market, driven by liquidity, growth expectations, and valuation cycles in the software market.
In April, I revisited the topic and confirmed my conclusion: Bitcoin still correlated most strongly with the SaaS and tech software sector. I hinted that I would soon explain the reasons behind this phenomenon. A turning point emerged in June, when I stated that the "strong" correlation with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF had begun to weaken, and no sector of the traditional market maintained a strong link with Bitcoin.
Thus, my current position gradually took shape. From the thesis of Bitcoin as a tech paper in February, I arrived at the conclusion of its growing independence, which I now describe as a return to Satoshi's original idea.
My conclusion: Bitcoin no longer needs Wall Street's "permission" to grow. The decoupling from the tech sector is not a weakness but a sign of maturity. Investors accustomed to viewing BTC through the lens of traditional markets should reconsider their models. The next cycle may surprise those who fail to do so.