The U.S. stock market is demonstrating impressive strength, placing it among the most powerful rallies of the last hundred years. Since the end of 2022, the S&P 500 index has risen by 95%, automatically placing the current bull cycle in the top 10% of the strongest rallies at this stage since 1928.
For context: historical data shows that the median bull market over a similar period has brought investors only about 35%. Even the top 25% of the strongest rallies showed gains of around 50%. The current result is nearly double that figure, indicating exceptional momentum.
It is particularly noteworthy that this growth has continued for over two years, and even the correction of March-April 2025 could not knock the market off course. Moreover, since the April 2025 low, the S&P 500 has surged another 51%, confirming the strength of the upward impulse.
Comparison with the Dot-Com Bubble: A Warning Signal?
However, behind this impressive statistic lies another side of the coin. Analysts studying market structure are increasingly drawing parallels with the dot-com crash of the early 2000s. Overlaying the current S&P 500 index chart onto the trajectory of that bubble reveals an almost perfect match of key stages: a sharp surge, a pullback, an initial correction, a weak recovery, and preparation for a full-blown collapse.
During the dot-com era, the S&P 500 crashed by about 49%, and the Nasdaq by nearly 78%, with this decline stretching over more than two years. Experts characterize today's market conditions as "alarmingly similar": dominance of big tech stocks, extreme valuations, and retail investors fully focused on growth.
My expert view: The record growth of the S&P 500 and the rising risk of a reversal are not a contradiction, but classic signs of an overheated market. The longer this rally lasts and the higher valuations are pushed, the more acute the question of its sustainability becomes. Investors, especially in cryptocurrencies, should closely watch this indicator: a correction in stock markets traditionally puts pressure on risk assets. The current situation reminds me of the late stage of a bull cycle, where euphoria and fear coexist in a dangerous balance.