The flagship cryptocurrency is beginning to exhibit increasingly independent behavior, distancing itself from traditional assets. And this, in my deep conviction, is an extremely positive signal for the entire market. We are witnessing a process that can be called correlation disintegration — and this returns Bitcoin to its original concept, as envisioned by Satoshi Nakamoto.
Until the end of 2025, I observed a stable link between Bitcoin's dynamics and the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF, reflecting the state of the technology sector. However, this link is now beginning to break down. And this is not just a statistical observation — it is a shift in the fundamental paradigm.
Why the correlation breakdown is a bullish signal
The less Bitcoin depends on Wall Street sentiment, the closer it is to its true essence — a decentralized asset not controlled by traditional finance. Many analysts who persistently apply stock market metrics to Bitcoin risk making a serious mistake in their forecasts.
Over the next three years, I predict a significant divergence in trajectories: traditional stocks may show weakness, while the cryptocurrency enters a new bullish cycle and heads in the opposite direction. Bitcoin does not need Wall Street's permission to rise in price — this is the key thesis currently being tested in practice.
Evolution of perspective: from tech stock to independent asset
My position on this issue has been forming over several months. Back in February, I pointed out the strongest correlation of Bitcoin with the SaaS sector and technology software. At that time, the asset behaved like a risky tech stock, driven by liquidity and revaluation cycles in the software market.
However, already in April, I confirmed my conclusion: Bitcoin was still most strongly correlated with SaaS and tech software, but I sensed impending changes. The turning point came in June, when I stated that the "strong" correlation with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF had begun to weaken. No sector of the traditional market any longer had a strong link with Bitcoin.
Thus, step by step, my current position took shape: from the thesis of Bitcoin as a tech stock in February, I arrived at the conclusion of its growing independence, which today I call a return to Satoshi's original idea.
My conclusion: The current disintegration of Bitcoin from traditional markets is not an anomaly but a natural stage in the asset's evolution. Investors accustomed to evaluating cryptocurrency through the lens of the stock market should reconsider their approach. The next bull market may catch off guard those who continue to view Bitcoin as just another risky asset.