The structure of XRP flows on exchanges has undergone drastic changes. On-chain data analysis shows that the current market configuration is surprisingly reminiscent of periods that preceded powerful rallies of tens and hundreds of percent in the past.
After a deep correction, during which the asset lost about 70% of its value, the XRP market is sending three independent signals indicating a possible trend change. These signals come from analyzing holder behavior, leverage levels, and the activity of the largest investors.
Record Surplus of Withdrawals Over Deposits
The first and perhaps most noticeable signal is a sharp shift in the balance of transactions on Binance towards coin withdrawals. On July 17, the share of XRP withdrawals from this exchange reached 54.5%. This is the highest value since July 2024, exceeding the previous peak of 53.2% recorded on June 20, 2025.
Simultaneously, the share of deposits (transfers to the exchange) fell to 45.4%. The gap between these indicators widened to 9.1%, significantly higher than the June value of 6.5%. A similar picture is observed across all centralized exchanges, where the withdrawal share reached 53.01%.
This transaction structure has been observed in the past. After a similar surge in withdrawals on June 20, 2025, the XRP price rose from $2.11 to $3.50 by July 21 — nearly 66% in a month. However, it is important to understand that these data reflect the number of transactions, not volumes. This is more of a shift in behavior structure rather than a direct guarantee of growth.
The Market is Clearing Leverage: A Repeat of the 2024 Scenario
The second signal comes from the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) indicator on Binance. This ratio, showing the average level of borrowed funds, has fallen to 0.16. This is one of the lowest levels since November 2024, approaching the April 2026 low of 0.15.
The reason for this decline is a massive reduction in futures positions. Some of them were forcibly liquidated during the correction, mechanically pulling down open interest as well. This process of "cleaning" the market from excessive leverage is an important stage of a correction. It makes the price base healthier and reduces volatility.
In 2024, a similar scenario led to a colossal rally. When the ELR approached 0.05 with the XRP price around $0.40, a surge of over 790% followed. The current decline in the ratio, though not as deep, repeats the same pattern.
Whales Lie Low: Outflows from Large Holders Hit a Minimum
The third signal is a sharp decline in the activity of the largest holders (whales). The 30-day outflow of XRP from wallets containing over 1 million coins on Binance has fallen to approximately 885.1 million coins. This is the lowest value in the last two months.
This slowdown in outflow follows a period of heightened withdrawal activity. Experts interpret this differently: high outflow usually indicates a shift to long-term storage, while low outflow may point to reduced activity and a wait-and-see stance by large players. In this case, the decline coincided with a narrow XRP price range, indicating that whales are awaiting new catalysts.
My professional opinion: The coincidence of three diverse signals — a change in flow structure, market deleveraging, and whale inactivity — forms an extremely interesting picture. This is not a guarantee of a reversal, but historical precedents (June 2025 and 2024) compel the closest attention to the current situation. The market appears to be laying the foundation for the next major move.