The structure of XRP flows on exchanges has undergone a sharp change: investors have begun massively withdrawing coins from trading platforms. According to several analysts, the current market configuration resembles what previously preceded powerful rallies of the asset by tens and even hundreds of percent.
The XRP market is sending three independent signals indicating a potential trend change. These are a record excess of withdrawals over deposits, a clearing of the market from excessive leverage, and a decrease in the activity of large holders (whales). However, as the experts themselves emphasize, the repetition of historical scenarios is not guaranteed.
Withdrawal share reaches highest level since July 2024
The first to notice the anomaly was an analyst under the pseudonym Amr Taha. According to his data, on July 17, the share of XRP withdrawal transactions on Binance surged to 54.5% — the highest level since July 2024, exceeding the previous peak of 53.2% recorded on June 20, 2025.
At the same time, the share of deposits on the exchange fell to 45.4%, and the spread between withdrawals and deposits widened to 9.1% compared to 6.5% in June 2025. A similar picture was observed across all centralized exchanges overall: the withdrawal share reached 53.01%, nearly matching the level of June 20, 2025.
It is this coincidence that makes the comparison indicative. As Taha recalls, after similar values on June 20, 2025, XRP rose from approximately $2.11 to $3.50 by July 21 — nearly 66% in a month. However, the analyst urges caution: XRP is currently trading around $1.09, and the percentages themselves reflect only the number of transactions, not their volume or net flows. This is more of a change in transaction structure than a guarantee of growth.
Market clears leverage — as before a 790% rally
The second signal was highlighted by analyst Darkfost. According to his data, XRP is undergoing a new deleveraging phase on Binance, which is clearly visible in the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR). This indicator is currently at 0.16 — one of the lowest levels since November 2024. It is approaching the April 2026 low of 0.15, while the XRP price has fallen by approximately 70%.
The analyst explains the reason for this decline as a reduction in futures positions. Some of them were liquidated due to the correction, which mechanically pulled down open interest as well. Darkfost calls such a clearing an important stage of the correction: an excess of accumulated leverage weakens the market's foundation and makes price movements less predictable.
According to the expert, a similar scenario already unfolded in 2024. At that time, with the price around $0.40, the ELR coefficient approached 0.05, and that clearing was followed by an XRP price increase of more than 790%.
Whale outflow from Binance drops to two-month low
The third signal was identified by analyst Arab Chain. According to his data, the 30-day outflow of large XRP holders from Binance has decreased to approximately 885.1 million coins — a low not seen in over two months. This reflects a notable slowdown in the transfer of large assets from the exchange.
As the expert explains, the decline in outflow follows a period of heightened withdrawal activity. This signal should be interpreted with caution: high outflow typically indicates a shift by large investors to long-term storage, while low outflow may point to a decrease in their activity. The slowdown coincided with a narrow price range for XRP, which, according to Arab Chain, indicates a wait-and-see stance by major players, possibly in anticipation of new market catalysts.
The signal itself is neither bullish nor bearish — it merely reflects a reduction in the movement of large assets, which could ultimately affect market liquidity.
Expert commentary: All three studies come together to form a single picture. Amr Taha records a record excess of withdrawals over deposits, Darkfost notes a clearing of leverage from the market, and Arab Chain observes a slowdown in whale outflow. Importantly, both the history of June 2025 and the clearing of 2024 previously preceded strong rises in the XRP exchange rate. However, as the analysts themselves emphasize, the coincidence of signals does not guarantee a repeat of the scenario. The market remains in a zone of uncertainty, and any movement requires confirmation by volume and fundamental factors.