After a significant decline in the XRP rate, approaching approximately 70% of its all-time highs, a configuration of three independent on-chain indicators is forming on the market, which has historically preceded powerful rallies. Analysis of exchange fund flows, leverage dynamics, and the behavior of large holders points to a potential trend reversal, albeit with caveats.
Record Outweigh of Withdrawals Over Deposits
The first and most notable signal comes from the transaction structure on Binance. The share of XRP withdrawals from the exchange has reached 54.5%, the highest value since July 2024. This figure exceeded the previous peak of 53.2% recorded on June 20, 2025. Simultaneously, the share of deposits (top-ups) decreased to 45.4%, resulting in the spread between withdrawals and deposits widening to 9.1% compared to 6.5% in June. A similar picture is observed across all centralized exchanges, where the share of withdrawals stands at 53.01%, almost mirroring the level of June 20, 2025. It was precisely after such an imbalance favoring fund withdrawals in June 2025 that XRP demonstrated growth from approximately $2.11 to $3.50 within a month — nearly 66%. However, it is important to understand that the current indicator reflects a change in the transaction structure rather than absolute volumes or net flows, so it should be viewed as groundwork preparation, not a guarantee of a rally.
Market Clearing of Excessive Leverage
The second important signal is related to the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) on Binance. This indicator, reflecting the ratio of open interest in futures to the exchange's coin balance, has dropped to 0.16. This is one of the lowest levels since November 2024, approaching the April 2026 low of 0.15. The reason for this decline is the mechanical liquidation of some futures positions amid the correction, which also pulled down open interest. Such a deleveraging phase, or market clearing of excessive leverage, is a critically important stage of a correction. It eliminates accumulated market fragility, making future price movements more predictable and sustainable. In 2024, a similar situation, when the ELR approached 0.05 with the XRP price around $0.40, preceded a staggering rally of over 790%. The current picture, though not as extreme, repeats this scenario.
Whale Calm: Minimum Outflow in Two Months
The third signal comes from analyzing the behavior of large holders (whales) on Binance. The 30-day XRP outflow from whales has decreased to approximately 885.1 million coins, the lowest value in over two months. This sharp slowdown in transferring large assets off the exchange follows a period of heightened withdrawal activity. On one hand, high outflow is usually interpreted as large investors transitioning to long-term storage. On the other hand, the current calm may indicate a wait-and-see stance by whales, who might be accumulating positions or awaiting new catalysts. By itself, this signal is neither bullish nor bearish, but in the context of the other two indicators, it confirms the overall picture of consolidation and reduced market activity among major players.
Analyst Comment: The coincidence of three diverse but historically significant signals — a record outweigh of withdrawals, market clearing of leverage, and whale calm — creates an intriguing configuration for XRP. However, I would caution against blindly copying past scenarios. The market is at entirely different price levels, and the macroeconomic and regulatory environment has changed. These signals indicate that the foundation for potential growth is being laid right now, but realizing this potential will require a powerful fundamental catalyst. Until that exists, the market will likely continue to consolidate within a narrow range, testing holders' patience.