The XRP market is sending three independent but converging technical signals, pointing to a potential trend reversal. After a decline of approximately 70% from all-time highs, the structure of on-chain data is beginning to repeat patterns that in the past preceded powerful rallies of tens and hundreds of percent.
Record Outflow-to-Deposit Ratio
The first and perhaps most noticeable signal is a sharp change in the structure of XRP flows on major exchanges. The share of withdrawal transactions from Binance has reached 54.5%, the highest level since July 2024. At the same time, the share of deposits (transfers to the exchange) has fallen to 45.4%, resulting in the gap between withdrawals and deposits widening to 9.1%. A similar picture is observed across all centralized platforms, where the share of withdrawals has approached 53%. In the past, such dynamics (June 2025) preceded a sharp rise in XRP from $2.11 to $3.50 in just one month — an increase of nearly 66%.
The Market is "Cleansing" Leverage
The second, even deeper signal comes from the derivatives market. The Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) for XRP on Binance has dropped to 0.16. This is one of the lowest levels since November 2024, approaching the April 2026 low of 0.15. A decline in ELR means that traders are massively reducing their futures positions — some were forcibly liquidated during the correction, which mechanically pulled down open interest as well. It is important to note that in 2024, with XRP trading around $0.40, a similar market "cleanse" (ELR fell to nearly 0.05) led to a subsequent rally of over 790%. The current deleveraging essentially "clears" the market of excessive speculative load, making the foundation for future growth more sustainable.
Whales Lie in Wait
The third signal confirms a shift in sentiment among the largest holders of the asset. The 30-day outflow of XRP "whales" from Binance has decreased to approximately 885.1 million coins — the lowest value in over two months. The decline in large asset outflows from the exchange after a period of heightened withdrawal activity indicates that major players have adopted a wait-and-see stance. They are not actively selling or moving assets, which could signal accumulation in anticipation of new catalysts. By itself, this signal is neutral, but in the context of the previous two, it reinforces the overall picture of consolidation and potential readiness for an upward move.
Expert Commentary: The coincidence of three diverse signals — from the structure of flows to the state of the derivatives market and whale behavior — creates a rare and strong convergence. History does not repeat itself literally, and there are no guarantees of a reversal, but the current picture is one of the most compelling for forming a long-term position in XRP in recent months. The market appears to be laying the foundation for a new cycle.