While retail investors are panicking and locking in losses, major players and on-chain metrics are sending signals that have preceded powerful XRP rallies in the past. After a price decline of more than 70% from all-time highs, the market structure has begun to change dramatically. I have analyzed three independent indicators from leading on-chain analysts, and all point to the same thing: the bearish trend may have exhausted itself.
Record Exchange Outflows: Investors Shift to HODL Mode
The first and perhaps loudest signal is a sharp shift in the balance between XRP deposits and withdrawals on Binance. On July 17, the share of withdrawal transactions from the exchange surged to 54.5%. This is an absolute high since July 2024, even exceeding the previous peak of 53.2% recorded on June 20, 2025.
Simultaneously, the share of deposits (transfers to the exchange) plummeted to 45.4%. The gap between these metrics widened to 9.1%, significantly higher than June's 6.5%. In my view, this is a classic accumulation pattern: traders are massively moving coins off trading platforms, preferring cold wallet storage. It is worth noting that a similar picture was observed on June 20, 2025, after which XRP surged from $2.11 to $3.50 in just one month — a gain of nearly 66%.
Market Deleveraging: A Historical Precedent
The second signal I have been closely watching is the deep deleveraging phase in the XRP market. The Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) on Binance has dropped to 0.16. This is one of the lowest levels since November 2024, approaching the April 2026 low of 0.15.
The reason is clear: the aggressive correction wiped out a massive number of futures positions. Some were liquidated mechanically, dragging open interest down as well. However, in my experience, this kind of "cleansing" of an overheated market is a necessary condition for the start of a new, sustainable uptrend. In 2024, when the ELR approached 0.05 with the price around $0.40, the subsequent rally was over 790%. The current situation, while not identical, is structurally very similar.
Whales Lie Low: Activity of Large Holders Drops to a Minimum
The third, and perhaps most subtle, signal is a sharp decline in whale outflows from Binance. Over a 30-day period, this metric has fallen to approximately 885.1 million XRP, a low not seen in over two months.
This suggests that large holders, who were previously actively moving their assets (possibly for selling or staking), have adopted a wait-and-see approach. Low whale activity often precedes a consolidation phase, followed by a sharp breakout. They are not selling, but they are not buying aggressively either — they are waiting for a catalyst.
My conclusion: The convergence of three independent signals — record exchange outflows, market deleveraging, and whale inactivity — creates an extremely interesting configuration. History, of course, does not repeat itself literally, and current price levels ($1.09) are far from those seen in 2024. However, if institutional demand returns and the macroeconomic backdrop does not spring any surprises, we could witness the beginning of a new bullish cycle for XRP. The market, it seems to me, is ready for a reversal.