Cautious optimism persists on Capitol Hill regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act — a bill that, for the first time in U.S. history, aims to establish comprehensive federal regulation of the crypto industry. However, the main stumbling block remains provisions concerning ethics and potential conflicts of interest related to Donald Trump's activities in digital assets.
An analysis of the current version of the document shows that it has not yet garnered support from Democrats. This is unsurprising: the question of how to interpret the former president's (and his family's) involvement in crypto projects is causing sharp disagreements. Republicans, eager to expedite the law's passage, insist on relaxing ethical standards, while opponents demand strict restrictions.
Nevertheless, my sources in Congress and among key industry players claim that technical work on the text could be completed within the next few months. The CLARITY Act itself is a long-awaited step toward creating legal certainty for the market. It aims to delineate the powers of the SEC and CFTC, as well as establish clear rules for stablecoins and mining.
However, without resolving the ethical issue, the law risks remaining a political hostage. Until the parties find a compromise, the U.S. crypto industry will continue to exist in a state of uncertainty, weakening its global competitiveness.
Expert opinion: The political will to pass the CLARITY Act is evident, but I estimate the likelihood of it passing through Congress in the current session at no more than 40%. The ethical disputes are just the tip of the iceberg; beneath lies the fundamental question of how the state should control decentralized finance without stifling innovation.