The structure of XRP flows has undergone drastic changes. On-chain data analysis points to the simultaneous emergence of three signals that have preceded powerful rallies in the past. However, as practice shows, history tends to rhyme, but does not always repeat itself verbatim.
After a correction in which XRP lost about 70% of its value, the market appears to be entering a phase of consolidation and accumulation. Data from major exchanges paints a picture reminiscent of periods before explosive growth in 2024 and 2025. I have analyzed three key indicators that are currently working in unison.
Record Surplus of Withdrawals Over Deposits
The first, and perhaps most noticeable, signal is a sharp shift in the balance of transactions on Binance. The share of XRP withdrawals from the exchange has reached 54.5%, the highest level since July 2024. For comparison, the previous peak of 53.2% was recorded on June 20, 2025. The share of deposits, conversely, has fallen to 45.4%, and the spread between withdrawals and deposits has widened to 9.1%.
It is important to understand that we are looking at the ratio of transaction counts, not volumes. Nevertheless, the very fact of such a shift indicates a change in sentiment: market participants prefer to take coins off exchanges rather than bring them in for sale. This is a classic sign of accumulation. After a similar spike on June 20, 2025, XRP rose from $2.11 to $3.50 in just one month — an increase of nearly 66%.
Leverage Cleanse: A Repeat of the 2024 Scenario?
The second important signal comes from the derivatives market. The Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) on Binance has dropped to 0.16. This is one of the lowest levels since November 2024, approaching the April 2026 low of 0.15.
A decline in ELR means that market participants are actively closing or being forced to liquidate their futures positions. This is a mechanical cleansing of the market from excessive leverage, making the price base healthier and more sustainable. This is exactly the picture observed in 2024, when the ELR approached 0.05 with the price around $0.40. This was followed by a historic XRP surge of over 790%.
Whale Lull: A Waiting Game
The third signal completes the overall picture. The 30-day outflow of large XRP holders (whales) from Binance has decreased to approximately 885.1 million coins. This is the lowest value in over two months.
The decline in whale activity after a period of increased coin withdrawals can be interpreted in two ways. On one hand, it indicates that large players have temporarily paused moving assets, adopting a wait-and-see approach. On the other hand, it could signal reduced liquidity, which in the short term is fraught with increased volatility. By itself, the signal is neither bullish nor bearish, but in the context of the two previous indicators, it points to a consolidation of forces.
My analysis: Three independent signals — an increase in the share of withdrawals, a market cleanse from leverage, and a whale lull — combine into a single picture. The XRP market is likely in the final stage of its correction and is preparing for a new move. However, I would caution against blindly copying historical scenarios. Market conditions have changed, and while the foundation for growth is being laid, there are no guarantees of a repeat of the 66% or 790% rally. The key factor will be the emergence of a new catalyst capable of driving XRP out of its current price range.