The Russian banking sector is entering a new era. In my assessment, the country's largest financial institutions have already completed the infrastructure preparation for conducting cross-border settlements using cryptocurrencies. However, contrary to many expectations, this will not lead to an easy market capture—on the contrary, a fierce battle for every client awaits us.
Technical readiness is only half the battle
According to information I received from the top management of one of the leading banks, the technical foundation for crypto settlements is 100% ready among all key players. A public entry into this market will turn it into a "red ocean"—an environment where all competitors are already prepared and are fighting for the same audience. The first advantage will go to whoever enters earlier than the rest.
In the banking environment, such competition is viewed as an opportunity rather than a threat. "We love competition—it's a driver. When the market changes, you can gain a share from that change," notes my interlocutor. And it's hard to disagree with that: the dynamics here will be off the charts.
The market is being built from scratch
It's important to understand: infrastructure readiness does not equal demand readiness. The key challenge now is not in the technologies, but in the need to build the market almost from scratch. This is reminiscent of the launch of digital financial assets (DFAs), where the implementation process took significantly longer than expected.
The first clients will be companies already familiar with cryptocurrencies: miners and importers working with jurisdictions where the level of digital asset adoption is higher. An average corporate client requires a lengthy immersion—right down to explaining pricing principles and comparing new tools with familiar ones.
"A large number of clients need to be trained, visited, and explained to—with fairly low returns in the initial stages," the expert states.
My analysis: The crypto settlement market in Russia is on the verge of explosive growth, but the path to it will be thorny. Banks that can not only offer the technology but also effectively "educate" the market will gain a tremendous advantage. The first six months to a year will be decisive for the balance of power. Keep an eye on the dynamics—it will be a thrilling spectacle.