A landmark event occurred at Friday's market open: Apple's (AAPL) market capitalization briefly surpassed Nvidia's (NVDA), reaching $4.92 trillion against the competitor's $4.86 trillion. Although Nvidia quickly reclaimed the lead, the gap between the two tech giants has narrowed to its smallest since the start of the year.
Apple shares rose 1.76%, hitting an all-time high of $333.26. Meanwhile, Nvidia shares lost 2.40%, falling to $207.40. This dynamic reflects a fundamental shift in market sentiment: investors are actively taking profits in the semiconductor sector, rotating into more stable assets like Apple.
Over the past week, AAPL shares have gained over 7%, while NVDA has lost nearly 4% in the last month. This is confirmed by the Nasdaq 100 heatmap: Apple is one of the few mega-cap companies in the green, while the entire chip sector is under pressure. Alphabet fell 4.44%, Broadcom 5.03%, and AMD 5.33%. The sell-off in AI company stocks, which began in early July, continues to gain momentum.
The reason for such divergent dynamics lies in different growth drivers. Apple relies on high demand for the iPhone 17 and record performance from its services division, which brought in $30.98 billion last quarter. Amid a shortage of AI memory, buyers have shifted to the premium segment, pushing the stock to new heights.
Nvidia, on the other hand, maintains exceptionally strong fundamentals. The company's quarterly revenue was $81.6 billion — 85.2% higher than a year ago. The data center segment grew 199%, as major players continue to expand their AI capabilities. The Blackwell 300 platform is gaining traction, and TSMC raised its forecast, indicating a sustained flow of orders for AI chips. However, investors are taking profits after historic growth, despite NVDA's business accelerating.
Apple's July 30 Report Could Decide Everything
The next key trigger for the market is Apple's report on July 30. Nvidia will present its results only on August 26. Thus, Apple will have a full month to shape the information narrative, while Nvidia will remain under the influence of general market sentiment.
Analysts will focus on services segment growth, revenue from China, and early signals about the iPhone 18. Last quarter, revenue in the region was $25.53 billion, and on Polymarket, the probability of an iPhone 18 announcement this year is estimated at 96%.
From a valuation perspective, Nvidia trades at roughly 22 times forward earnings with a PEG ratio of 0.6 and a target of $91 billion in quarterly revenue. Gross margin remains around 75% — significantly higher than Apple's approximately 49%. Apple, in turn, commands a multiple closer to 32. This premium is justified by eight consecutive quarters of earnings per share growth, a new $100 billion buyback, and a $30 billion deal with Broadcom that strengthens its position in the chip segment.
Technical Analysis: Apple Confidently Breaks $315
On the daily chart, Apple shares updated all-time highs on Thursday and Friday — the latest peak was recorded at $334.68. The price has been rising almost without pause since late June. On Thursday, Apple broke through the key resistance at $315, which had capped gains in May and mid-July. This level could now act as support during potential pullbacks.
The upward move began after a bounce from the $275-280 zone on June 26. This range had acted as resistance since February, and the successful test gave bulls confidence for a new wave of growth. The daily RSI has risen above 70, indicating a clear dominance of bulls, although such high readings could signal a potential local correction.
My Comment: The current situation is a classic example of capital flowing from an overheated sector into safer assets. Apple benefits from diversification and a stable services business, but Nvidia should not be counted out. If Apple's July 30 report disappoints, NVDA, with its fundamental strength and low PEG, could very quickly reclaim the lead. Investors should closely watch the services and China data in Apple's report — this will be the deciding factor in the coming month.