The capital restructuring plan from Strategy, announced in late June, was a significant step forward. The company heeded market signals and promptly began strengthening its liquidity position. However, as my calculations show, this new model still retains a fundamental systemic vulnerability.
The main success is the rapid shift from aggressive purchases to accumulating a dollar reserve. In a matter of days, the company sold approximately 3,588 BTC, raised $466.7 million through the sale of MSTR shares, and increased its "safety cushion" from $1.44 billion to $3 billion. Dividend coverage on STRC preferred shares doubled from 14 to 29 months. This is a serious reduction in liquidity risks, which the market has already priced in: STRC securities rebounded from lows of around $75 to $85, though they are still far from their $100 par value.
But there are two critical issues that remain unanswered.
Problem One: Lack of a System for Entry
The new rule for share issuance—issuing them only when mNAV is around 1x—regulates only the timing of capital raising, not its deployment. This means the company could accumulate billions but then "buy the local top" in the bitcoin market again, as it has done before. Without a clear model for purchase timing based on market valuations, Strategy risks repeating old mistakes.
Problem Two: Lack of a Strategy for Sales
The current monetization program is purely defensive, not proactive. It provides for selling bitcoin only to replenish reserves or pay dividends. There is no mention of partially locking in profits at the peaks of a bull cycle or using hedging instruments. This means that in the next rally, the company risks being "left high and dry" again, without realizing potential profits.
My expert assessment: Until Strategy implements a disciplined approach to both buying and selling bitcoin, its turnaround will remain only a half-measure. The market is waiting not just for balance sheet stabilization, but for a mature capital management system that allows the company to profit from volatility, rather than simply weathering it.