France's National Gambling Authority (ANJ) has taken decisive action against the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, ordering all internet service providers in the country to block access to the resource. The regulator classified Polymarket's activities as illegal gambling, which automatically entails a full geo-block within the state's territory.
This decision marks the culmination of a prolonged standoff: since 2024, the platform had implemented a geo-block on transactions for French users, but data shows this did not stem the flow of those eager to place bets. In June 2025, Polymarket was visited by over 205,000 unique users from France, indicating widespread use of VPNs and other tools to bypass restrictions.
Manipulation and Criminal Trail
The French regulator also cites a high risk of event outcome manipulation. Particular attention was drawn to an investigation launched by the Paris prosecutor's office back in May 2025. Law enforcement suspects that some users hacked meteorological sensors and detectors to artificially influence weather conditions and, consequently, the outcomes of bets related to climatic events. This is the first case of its kind where crypto prediction markets become a tool for physical manipulation.
Global Isolation of Polymarket
Currently, Polymarket is under geo-block in 36 jurisdictions worldwide. This list includes not only European countries but also major markets such as Singapore, Poland, Ukraine, and Brazil. Each new ban narrows the operational space of the platform, which positions itself as a decentralized tool for information gathering, rather than a gambling establishment.
My Expert Analysis: France's actions set a serious precedent. If previously regulators fought Polymarket through financial restrictions and transaction blocking, they have now moved to the infrastructure level, targeting providers. This shows that traditional regulatory mechanisms are adapting to decentralized platforms. For Polymarket, this is not just a legal headache—it is a question of the survival of a business model that has proven too vulnerable to state pressure. Investors should consider that such decisions could spread like an avalanche to other jurisdictions, making the platform's tokens an extremely volatile asset.