French regulators have taken decisive action against prediction markets. The National Gambling Authority (ANJ) has ordered all internet service providers in the country to block access to the Polymarket platform. The basis for this is the classification of such services as illegal gambling, which is completely prohibited under French law.
This measure is the culmination of a long-standing confrontation. Since 2024, Polymarket had implemented geo-blocking of transactions for French users, but it proved largely ineffective. Analytics show that in June of this year, the platform was visited by over 205,000 unique users from France, indicating widespread use of VPNs and other tools to bypass restrictions.
The regulator also points to systemic risks associated with outcome manipulation. In particular, the Paris prosecutor's office has been conducting an investigation since May on suspicion of hacking weather sensors to gain an advantage when betting on weather events. This is just one episode demonstrating the vulnerability of decentralized platforms to malicious actors.
As of today, Polymarket is already blocked in 36 jurisdictions worldwide, including Singapore, Poland, Ukraine, and Brazil. France has joined this list, reinforcing the overall trend of regulating prediction markets as gambling.
My analysis: France's actions are a logical continuation of the global trend toward tightening control over decentralized platforms. However, given the history of bypassing blocks, the effectiveness of this measure remains questionable. Polymarket will likely continue to operate, but in a gray area, losing liquidity due to restricted access. Investors should consider regulatory risks when working with such projects.