The bitcoin market is showing a worrying signal that has never been observed before in the entire history of tracking. The Coinbase Premium index, which reflects the price difference of the first cryptocurrency on the US exchange Coinbase compared to other platforms, has been in negative territory for 60 consecutive days. This is an absolute anti-record.
The last time the index recorded positive values was on May 19. As of July 18, the indicator stands at -0.05%. The previous record for the duration of a negative phase was recorded from January 16 to February 24, when the streak lasted 40 days. The current indicator has beaten it by one and a half times.
What lies behind this signal
The Coinbase Premium is an important indicator of sentiment among retail investors in the US. The lower the value, the weaker the interest in the asset from American traders. The index's prolonged stay in negative territory indicates that even against the backdrop of positive news, such as inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs, local demand on Coinbase remains subdued.
At the time of writing the analysis, bitcoin is trading around the $64,100 mark, having gained 1.5% over the past day. The first cryptocurrency has managed to partially recover from the decline caused by the stock market crash on Friday, including the semiconductor sector. However, the recovery appears fragile.
ETF context and market dynamics
From July 13 to 17, spot bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $75.5 million. The products recorded their second consecutive positive week. This suggests that institutional investors continue to accumulate the asset, but the retail segment, especially in the US, is not yet in a hurry to return.
My opinion: Such a divergence between institutional interest and weak retail demand is a classic sign of consolidation before a major move. However, until the Coinbase Premium index returns to positive territory, the market remains vulnerable to local corrections. Investors should closely monitor this indicator in the coming weeks.