Last week, we witnessed a landmark moment in stock market history: Apple (AAPL) briefly overtook Nvidia (NVDA) in market capitalization, becoming the world's most valuable company. The gap between the giants narrowed to a minimum, demanding close analysis.
Apple shares surged 1.76% to a record $333.26, while Nvidia shares fell 2.40% to $207.40. In the first minutes of Friday's trading session, Apple's market cap reached $4.92 trillion compared to Nvidia's $4.86 trillion. Nvidia later regained the lead, but the battle for the top spot became the fiercest since the start of the year.
Apple's key growth driver is not the AI race at all, but steady demand for the iPhone 17 and record performance from its services division, which brought in $30.98 billion last quarter. Investors have shifted to the premium segment amid a shortage of AI memory. AAPL shares already hit an all-time high in early July. Meanwhile, the entire chip sector came under pressure: Alphabet lost 4.44%, Broadcom 5.03%, and AMD 5.33%, amplifying the broad sell-off in AI stocks that began in early July.
For Nvidia, unlike Apple, fundamental metrics are only accelerating. The company's quarterly revenue reached $81.6 billion, up 85.2% year-over-year. The data center segment grew by 199%. The Blackwell 300 platform is gaining momentum, and TSMC raised its forecasts, indicating sustained demand for AI chips. However, investors are taking profits after historic growth, despite NVDA's accelerating business. Nvidia's PEG ratio stands at 0.6, based on a $91 billion quarterly revenue target, while gross margin remains around 75% — significantly higher than Apple's approximate 49%.
Key Dates and What They Will Decide
The next market trigger is Apple's earnings report on July 30. Nvidia will only release its results on August 26. Apple will have an entire month to shape the narrative. Analysts will focus on services growth, revenue from China ($25.53 billion last quarter), and early signals about the iPhone 18. On Polymarket, the probability of an iPhone 18 announcement this year is estimated at 96%. Strong results in the Services and China segments could cement Apple's success. But if weaknesses emerge, Nvidia will have a chance to surge ahead again before its August report.
Apple's multiplier is closer to 32, justified by eight consecutive quarters of earnings per share growth, a new $100 billion buyback, and a $30 billion deal with Broadcom strengthening its position in the chip segment. The gap between third place (Alphabet) and the leaders is over half a trillion dollars, highlighting just how concentrated the market has become.
My expert opinion: The current situation is not just a statistical curiosity but a reflection of a fundamental market reassessment. Investors are beginning to distinguish between "AI stories" and "defensive assets." Apple, with its services ecosystem and stable cash flow, is now seen as a haven from volatility. Nvidia, despite its phenomenal growth rates, remains hostage to cyclical chip demand. In the coming weeks, Apple's earnings report will be a litmus test: can the "safe harbor" maintain its lead in the face of the "AI rocket."