The Coinbase Premium indicator for Bitcoin is showing a record-long period of negative values — 60 consecutive days. This is the longest stretch ever observed, as confirmed by data from the analytics platform Coinglass.
The index last rose above the zero mark on May 19. As of July 18, the figure stands at -0.05%. The previous anti-record was recorded from January 16 to February 24, when the premium remained negative for 40 days.
It is important to understand that the Coinbase Premium is a key indicator of sentiment among U.S. retail investors. The lower the value, the weaker the demand for the asset among American traders, which often signals a decline in institutional interest or overall market apathy.
Against this statistical backdrop, Bitcoin is trading at $64,100, up 1.5% over the past day. The leading cryptocurrency managed to recover from Friday's drop, triggered by a stock market crash, particularly in the semiconductor sector. However, the recovery does not yet look confident.
From July 13 to 17, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $75.5 million in net inflows, marking the second consecutive positive week. This suggests that institutional investors are gradually returning, but the retail segment remains on the sidelines for now.
My expert opinion: The 60-day "negative" on Coinbase is a worrying signal that points to a structural weakening of demand from U.S. retail traders. If ETF inflows do not accelerate, Bitcoin risks getting stuck in a sideways trend until a new catalyst emerges, such as a Fed rate cut or positive regulatory news.