The Coinbase Premium indicator for bitcoin is showing an unprecedentedly long stay in negative territory — 60 consecutive days. This is an absolute anti-record in the entire history of observations. Coinglass data records that the index was last above the zero mark on May 19, and as of July 18, the figure stands at -0.05%.
The previous record for a negative streak was recorded from January 16 to February 24 and amounted to 40 days. The current value is more than one and a half times higher than this figure, signaling a deep cooling of interest from American retail investors. The lower the Coinbase Premium, the weaker the demand for the asset on the largest American exchange.
At the time of writing the analysis, bitcoin is trading around $64,100, showing a daily increase of 1.5%. The first cryptocurrency has managed to partially recover from the drop following Friday's crash, triggered by sell-offs in the stock market, especially in the semiconductor sector.
Notably, against the backdrop of weak retail activity, institutional investors are showing a different sentiment. From July 13 to 17, spot bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $75.5 million, ensuring a second consecutive positive week for these products. This indicates a divergence between the short-term sentiments of retail traders and the long-term strategies of large players.
My expert commentary: The prolonged negative value of the Coinbase Premium is a warning signal, but not a catastrophe. It reflects not so much a fundamental weakening of bitcoin as a shift in liquidity and changes in behavioral patterns. While institutions accumulate through ETFs, retail is waiting. Once macroeconomic uncertainty subsides, we could see a sharp reversal of this indicator.