The Bitcoin market is sending a clear signal that it is approaching the end of the bear cycle. On-chain data analysis indicates that we have entered the final stage of the current downtrend, which has been ongoing for nine months.
The key indicator I am closely monitoring is based on the crossover of the cost bases of short-term and long-term holders. This refers to the moment when the average purchase price of investors holding the asset for less than six months drops below the average acquisition price of those holding Bitcoin for longer. This signal requires confirmation over three days, and according to my data, it has just triggered.
For the sake of analysis purity, coins that have not moved for more than seven years have been excluded from the long-term holder base. This allows for a more accurate assessment of the economically active portion of the supply and avoids distortions from "dormant" wallets.
It is important to understand: the triggering of this signal does not mean the bottom has been reached right now and the market will instantly reverse. It is an indication that the bear market has entered its final phase. In my opinion, this period is optimal for launching a gradual accumulation strategy (DCA).
Notably, the arrival of institutional investors has hardly changed the market's behavioral model. The composition of holders has remained the same, and along with it, their habits have persisted. Cycle after cycle, we see the same picture: short-term holders buy the dips, gradually lowering their average entry price until it falls below the level of active long-term holders.
The numbers confirm this dynamic: the cost basis of short-term holders has already dropped from $112,500 to $69,000. This indicates that the market has undergone a significant process of "washing out" weak hands.
My conclusion: The market is not just repeating historical patterns—it is following them with remarkable precision. Ignoring this signal would be imprudent. For those ready for a long-term game, the current phase offers perhaps one of the best entry opportunities in recent years. But remember: patience and discipline are your main allies.