The cryptocurrency market is transitioning into a phase of "neutral or slightly bullish" dynamics. My analysis of on-chain data shows that leverage pressure has significantly decreased, and short-term selling pressure is easing. This is a key signal for those monitoring a trend shift.
Flows to centralized exchanges show moderate but still insufficient accumulation of bitcoin. Over the past week, net inflows amounted to about 2196 BTC, while over the 14-day period, outflows remained at approximately 8197 BTC. This mixed picture indicates a volatile phase of liquidity adjustment rather than the formation of a clear trend.
Long positions maintain a slight advantage, but the excessive optimism and over-leverage characteristic of previous phases have noticeably weakened. Open interest in derivatives is gradually increasing, confirming the return of capital, but without the previous aggression.
Based on current data, I estimate the probability of a positive scenario for bitcoin at approximately 55%. To confirm this scenario, it is necessary to closely monitor funding volumes and exchange flows — these indicators will be decisive.
Absorption of Bearish Sales and Historical Parallels
My colleagues at Bitcoin Vector note that the market is gradually absorbing aggressive sales typical of a bearish phase. However, holders are still recording more losses than profits. This is a classic sign of an early stabilization stage, not a confirmed recovery.
Particular attention deserves the analysis of a trader under the pseudonym gum, who draws parallels with the previous cycle. In 2022, the weekly bullish divergence held for 161 days before the start of sustained growth. In 2026, a similar period has already lasted 147 days. If history repeats itself, the correction should end with a new local low, which will become the cycle bottom. According to estimates, this level could be in the range of $45,000 to $65,000.
An additional positive signal is the dynamics of spot bitcoin ETFs: from July 13 to 17, net inflows amounted to $75.5 million, providing the second consecutive positive week. This indicates a return of institutional interest.
Expert commentary: The market is passing through a critical bifurcation point. The reduction in leverage and absorption of sales are positive signals, but the lack of confident accumulation and ongoing holder losses indicate the fragility of the current equilibrium. I expect that in the coming weeks we will see either confirmation of a bullish reversal upon a breakout above key levels, or a test of the lower boundary of the $45,000–$65,000 range, which could become the final cycle bottom.