The Coinbase Premium indicator for bitcoin has recorded an unprecedented series of negative values. The metric has been in negative territory for 60 consecutive days, setting an absolute anti-record in the entire history of observations. The data was provided by the Coinglass platform.
The index last showed positive values on May 19. As of July 18, the indicator stands at -0.05%. The previous longest negative streak lasted 40 days — from January 16 to February 24.
Coinbase Premium is traditionally viewed as a barometer of sentiment among US retail investors. The lower the value, the weaker the interest in the asset. The current dynamics signal deep pessimism among American traders, who are in no rush to buy bitcoin even at current levels.
At the time of writing the analysis, bitcoin is trading at $64,100, up 1.5% over the past 24 hours. The first cryptocurrency has partially recovered from the decline triggered by the stock market crash on Friday, with the semiconductor sector particularly hard hit.
Notably, amid record pessimism among retail investors, institutional players continue to increase their positions. From July 13 to 17, spot bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $75.5 million, allowing the products to record a second consecutive positive week.
My analysis: The divergence between retail and institutional investor sentiment is rarely this pronounced. The record negative Coinbase premium indicates that US retail demand is virtually absent. However, the inflow into ETFs signals that large players see value at current levels. Such divergence often precedes a significant price movement — the market typically resolves such contradictions in favor of "smarter" money.